Commodities Analysis and Opinion

Could Gold Eventually Fall to the $1790/80 Level?

2023.02.10 07:40

On Monday we warned that & had generated sell signals.

Gold on Monday, we wrote: bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart & then the weekly chart suggested the 3-month rally in Gold just ended.

We wrote yesterday: It looks likely we are forming a bear flag on the short-term charts, meaning eventually, we will break lower.

Weekly XAU Chart

The bear flag broke as predicted:

Precious Metal Chart

Silver huge bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart is a sell signal as we take out all the candles for the 7 weeks last week.

We hold the most important support of the week at 2210/00 but with only a small bounce for scalpers.

WTI Crude April forms a potential bearish hanging man candle after 3 days of strong gains.

Today’s Analysis

Gold tested resistance at 1882/85. Shorts needed stops above 1890 – this was high for the day, just keeping us short for the move to the lower trend line of the bear flag at 1870.

We then broke the lower trend line for the next sell signal as predicted (although it took all week) to target minor support at 1855/50.

(A low for the day 3 points above) A break below here today is the next sell signal to target 1830/25. Eventually, we could fall as far as 1790/80.

First resistance at 1870/74 today. Shorts need stops above 1878. A break higher, however, can target 1885/90.

Silver is holding the most important support of the week at 2210/00, although we have dipped to 2190 now, so I think further losses are likely towards 2170/60 & 2135/30.

We will likely have resistance at 2200/2220 – shorts need stops above 2235.

Bulls need prices to get back above 2220 for the chance of recovery to 2290/2300.

WTI Crude continues higher through 7720/50 as predicted to resistance at 7840/80 with a high for the day exactly here, in fact. Shorts at 7840/80 worked on the slide to 7720/00 for profit taking.

A low for the morning is possible, but longs needed stops below 7670 & we hit 7652 before the bounce.

Resistance again at 7840/80. Shorts need stops above 7910. A break higher can target the February high at 7940/70, then 8020/40.

First support at 7640/20. A break below 7600 is a sell signal targeting 7490/60, perhaps as far as 7380/60.



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