WTI oil futures in a fierce battle with the 200-day SMA
2023.11.30 06:11
- WTI futures fall to a 4-month low before attempting a recovery
- But their rebound is being held down by the 200-day SMA
- Momentum indicators suggest that positive momentum is picking up
WTI oil futures (January delivery) have been on the retreat since their October peak of 89.85, breaking aggressively below historical support zones. Although the price managed to find its feet at the four-month low of 72.40, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) has been repeatedly curbing its upside.
If the bulls manage to conquer the 200-day SMA, immediate resistance could be met at 79.61, which is the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the 64.20-95.02 upleg. Piercing through that area, the price could advance towards the 38.2% Fibo of 83.25. Further upside attempts could then stall around the 23.6% Fibo of 87.75.
On the flipside, should the 200-day SMA hold its ground, the price might reverse lower towards the 61.8% Fibo of 75.97. A break beneath that region could pave the way for the recent four-month bottom of 72.40. Even lower, the 78.6% Fibo of 70.80 could provide downside protection.
In brief, WTI oil futures are stuck in a bearish short-term pattern, appearing unable to stage a solid rebound. However, a clear jump above the 200-day SMA could shift the short-term picture back to bullish.
