USD/JPY Remains Volatile, US PCE Price Index Next

07/26/2024

1 minute read

2024.07.26 07:41

The has hit the brakes on this week’s impressive rally. USD/JPY is trading at 154.34 in the European session, up 0.30% on the day.

On Thursday, the yen climbed as much as 1.3% but gave up all of those gains after the strong US report. Still, the yen is up 1.9% this week.

Tokyo Core CPI Ticks Higher

Tokyo rose to 2.2% y/y in July, a notch higher than the 2.1% gain in June and matching the market forecast.

This is the third straight acceleration and the highest level since March. Higher electricity prices drove the gain.

Earlier this week, service inflation for businesses rose to 3% in July, up from 2.7% in June and above the market forecast of 2.6%. This was the highest level in 33 years.

The Bank of Japan faces a tough task and must decide whether to maintain policy or deliver a rate hike at next week’s meeting. It’s a close call as to what decision the central bank will make and Bank officials can be expected to maintain radio silence.

There are strong arguments for both sides. Inflation and wage growth have been moving higher which would support a rate hike. As well, a rate hike could give a boost to the yen, which has been trading at multi-year lows. On the other hand consumption remains weak and a rate hike would only further dampen consumer spending.

Fed eyes Core PCE Price index

Later today, the US will release , which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. The index is expected to rise 0.1% m/m in June, matching the May figure. The PCE Price index is expected to ease to 2.5% y/y, down a notch from 2.6% in May. USD/JPY-4-Hour Chart