Financial market overview

US Economy Keeps Humming With Solid Q3 Growth on the Horizon

2024.10.18 08:20

Recent economic data has lifted CapitalSpectator.com’s median growth estimate for the upcoming third-quarter report. Using a variety of sources to generate a median nowcast, today’s revision reflects a slightly stronger expansion compared with the solid rise in Q2.

Output for Q3 is projected to increase 3.1% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to publish the actual data on Oct. 30.US Real GDP Change

If the median Q3 nowcast is correct, the estimated 3.1% increase will mark a fractionally faster rise over Q2’s strong 3.0% advance. Today’s update marks a moderately faster Q3 increase vs. the previous nowcast .

The main takeaway in today’s revised Q3 nowcast: US economic activity is robust. As a result, the recession fears that arose in the summer increasingly look misguided, to put it mildly.

In fact, the regular Q3 nowcasts published on these pages have consistently indicated that recession forecasts have been overbaked. A month ago, CapitalSpectator.com : “GDP Nowcasts Still Indicate Low Recession Risk For US In Q3.” , our median nowcast also indicated that growth would likely keep the US out of recession in Q3.

Although the median nowcast evolves through time, the critical factor is that growth in some non-trivial degree has been a consistent theme in the updates over the last several months. The actual data point that the government reports is hard, if not impossible, to forecast exactly.

However, the fact that a solid rate of growth has been routinely estimated for Q3 is one factor for assuming that recession risk has been low. All the more so when you consider that a supports the low-recession risk estimate.



Source link

Related Articles

Back to top button
bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 82,869.20 0.46%
ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) $ 1,893.81 0.38%
tether
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00 0.00%
xrp
XRP (XRP) $ 2.32 2.51%
bnb
BNB (BNB) $ 579.94 0.01%
solana
Solana (SOL) $ 125.65 1.03%
usd-coin
USDC (USDC) $ 1.00 0.00%
cardano
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.718558 1.00%
dogecoin
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.168774 1.48%
tron
TRON (TRX) $ 0.221261 1.58%
staked-ether
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 1,891.35 0.62%
pi-network
Pi Network (PI) $ 1.58 8.11%
wrapped-bitcoin
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 82,607.13 0.67%
leo-token
LEO Token (LEO) $ 9.76 0.30%
chainlink
Chainlink (LINK) $ 13.94 4.53%
stellar
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.278922 1.28%
usds
USDS (USDS) $ 1.00 0.01%
wrapped-steth
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 2,264.86 0.40%
hedera-hashgraph
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.191698 2.87%
avalanche-2
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 18.64 2.46%
shiba-inu
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000013 2.62%
sui
Sui (SUI) $ 2.21 3.84%
the-open-network
Toncoin (TON) $ 2.82 2.22%
litecoin
Litecoin (LTC) $ 90.15 0.18%
bitcoin-cash
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 331.38 0.85%
polkadot
Polkadot (DOT) $ 4.13 2.50%
mantra-dao
MANTRA (OM) $ 6.25 3.15%
ethena-usde
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 0.999945 0.04%
weth
WETH (WETH) $ 1,894.37 0.51%
binance-bridged-usdt-bnb-smart-chain
Binance Bridged USDT (BNB Smart Chain) (BSC-USD) $ 0.999333 0.14%
bitget-token
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 4.27 1.71%
hyperliquid
Hyperliquid (HYPE) $ 13.66 8.41%
whitebit
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 28.26 0.77%
wrapped-eeth
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 2,012.32 0.51%
monero
Monero (XMR) $ 208.68 0.44%
uniswap
Uniswap (UNI) $ 5.85 1.44%
susds
sUSDS (SUSDS) $ 1.04 0.01%
dai
Dai (DAI) $ 0.999748 0.04%
near
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 2.65 1.43%
aptos
Aptos (APT) $ 5.19 0.64%
pepe
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000007 4.29%
ethereum-classic
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 18.16 2.22%
ondo-finance
Ondo (ONDO) $ 0.852241 1.07%
internet-computer
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 5.57 0.64%
okb
OKB (OKB) $ 44.55 6.13%
coinbase-wrapped-btc
Coinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) $ 82,811.19 0.55%
gatechain-token
Gate (GT) $ 20.44 0.37%
aave
Aave (AAVE) $ 166.22 3.68%
mantle
Mantle (MNT) $ 0.723541 3.67%
official-trump
Official Trump (TRUMP) $ 11.58 7.39%