The Latest Market Analysis: Indicators Pointing to Potential Opportunities
2023.09.27 15:58
SPX Monitoring purposes; Short SPX on 9/1/23 at 4515.77; cover short 9/5/23 at 4496.83 = gain .43%.
Gain since 12/20/22=15.93%.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX (NYSE:) on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
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CBOE Put/Call Ratio Index
The bottom window is the 21 day average of the Cboe Global Markets Inc (NYSE:) equity put/call ratio and next higher window is the 5 day average. We identified the times when both indicators reached bullish levels with red and pink shaded areas. As you can see both are in bullish levels suggesting a market low is not far off, Join me on TFNN.com Tuesday 3:30 Eastern; Thursday 3:20 Eastern, Tune in.
The bottom window is the 5 day average of the TRIN and the next higher window is the 10 day TRIN. We shaded in light pink the times when the 10 day TRIN closes above 1.20 and the 5 day TRIN closes above 1.50 and extended the shaded area to the SPY prices. A 10 day TRIN above 1.20 and a 5 day TRIN above 1.50 are normally found near lows in the market. As you can see both 5 and 10 day TRIN have not reached panic levels (note with red box). Another day or two declines like today could push both TRIN moving averages to the bullish levels.
We updated this chart from last Thursday which is the Bullish percent index for the Gold miners index/GDX ratio. Last Thursday’s chart took this ratio back to mid 2016; the above chart goes back to 2009. The top window is the 28 period RSI and next window down is the Bullish Percent index for the Gold Minders index/GDX ratio. A bottom is in for GDX when the RSI of this ratio trades below 30 and than closes above 30. The blue and red lines on the chart above are previous signals. There where 18 signals generated with two failures (noted with red lines) which works out to a 89% success rate. Could see a “back and forth” period but the chart above has a 89% success rate.
