Commodities Analysis and Opinion

The Energy Report: Aid

2023.10.25 10:28

Phil Flynn

prices are still weak but trying to bottom as the market is still waiting to see how the war In Israel and the time frame for when they move on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Aid workers are begging for more fuel to move food and medicine, but Israel is resisting because it is clear that Hamas has fuel and is hoarding it to fight its war.

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken at the UN said that the US it does not seek conflict with Iran, but Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that Washington would act swiftly and decisively if Iran or its proxies attacked U.S. personnel anywhere. Obviously, if that happens for oil it will be a whole new ballgame. The risk that we lose Iranian oil is becoming all too real and the consequences will be far-reaching if that happens.

And while technically the market has some work to do as its struggling to find a bottom the fundamental outlook remains very bullish. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil supply fell by 2.668 million barrels last week WE also saw that gasoline supply had a big time draw of 4.169 signaling million barrels. Distillates also fell by 2.313 million barrels. If the Energy Information Administration confirms these numbers it should offer some pretty solid support.

Get beyond the fundamentals of markets being driven by uncertainty. When we get rolling waves of risk on and risk off due to war the price of oil can get divorced fundamentally from the fundamentals.

And if you were there of oil and gas regardless of the war we believe that it’s imperative that you use this weakness to hedge your upside risk and whether the headlines and the day-to-day basis seem to justify that position over the long run it’s definitely better to be safe than sorry in this situation especially when the potential upside risk could be massive and the downside risk even though it could be a few dollars it’s better to be prepared for the worst case scenario.

The drawdowns in gasoline and distillates me4 (Reuters) – The United States told the United Nations on Tuesday it does not seek conflict with Iran, but Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that Washington would act swiftly and decisively if Iran or its proxies attack U.S. personnel anywhere.

The recent price drops at the gasoline pumps should moderate and while we don’t expect a big upside move as long as demand continues to stay strong we don’t see a lot of downside potential either. It’s going to be all about crude oil. Refiners start to come out of maintenance The demand for crude should also start to pick up as well.

In the Chicago area, we have endless summer but get ready for winter… Natural gas prices are trying to bottom based on Jekyll and Hyde weather patterns. In Chicago they were in the upper 80s this week by the weekend just in time for the trick-or-treaters to start doing their trick-or-treating kind of thing it’s going to get into the 30s. So, we’re going to flip from air conditioning to heating demand in one week. One of the things that I’m going to stress is that if we get a long cold winter, we’re going to see some big upmoves in .

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