Stock Market Crash Season: Key Investor Tactics
2024.08.06 16:04
US stock market crash season is underway. Every year I urge equity investors to sell out of the stock market on Aug 1… to avoid what can be life-changing carnage.
The season ends 90 days later, on Oct 31. If there’s no crash by then, investors can return to the market.
The upside action is generally minimal during this period, so investors aren’t missing much.
This year, the carnage began right on schedule.
A look at the . If the Industrials close under 37,600 and the Transports confirm that with a close under 14,800…
The US stock market could be entering a bear market.
I’ve suggested that whether that bear market begins in this year’s crash season or not, when it does start, it’s likely to last for as long as 40 years.
It’s likely to end with US rates at 20%+, inflation rampant, and gold stocks functioning as the undisputed asset class of investing champions.
This bear market will also define the biggest stage of empire transition… from debt, fiat, and war-obsessed America to gold-oriented China… and soon after that to gold-obsessed India.
While debt is the big global theme, what were the specific catalysts for the mayhem in August so far? The weekly “carry trade” chart.
A closer look at the action, via the daily chart. The yen looks like a financial geyser.
It’s surreal that money managers took on so much leverage that a tiny (microscopic really) hike from the BOJ has incinerated their silly carry trade.
The carry trade is of course the action of borrowing massive amounts of low-interest money in Japan and using it to buy the US stock market. It’s an action of outrageous greed, and it’s an action that’s now on fire.
The big question, the big unknown, is how much of the carry trade has been destroyed with the BOJ’s tiny hike, and how much is still out there.
Some pundits in America are calling for an “emergency cut” from Fed chief Jay. If most of the carry trade is already unwound, that might restore some confidence, although it would likely be short-lived.
If a big portion of the carry trade is still out there, any cut, even one at the next Sep 18 FOMC meet… that could create another yen vs USD geyser.
If 70% or more of the carry trade is still out there, I’ll dare to suggest that an emergency cut could usher in a 10,000 point down day for the .
What lies ahead for America is likely a macabre hybrid of 1929 and 1966 and debt is of course the catalyst.
This is day six of the 2024 stock market crash season and looks fantastic on this short-term chart.
There’s a broadening pattern in play. These patterns suggest a situation that is out of control. Flaming carry trade gamblers certainly fit that bill. There’s also now some symmetrical triangle action, which indicates another big move up lies ahead.
The daily chart. It also looks good (as does our latest buy), and the price action suggests that $2600 may be coming soon.
The miners generally don’t fare as well as gold when the stock market gets hit. Nervous mine stock investors (particularly those with too many miners in relation to the amount of gold they hold) could consider allocating 2%-5% of their portfolio to October put options on GDX (NYSE:). I like the $34 strike price… it’s basically fire insurance to help investors have a good night’s sleep.
While enormous investor patience is required, in the big empire transition picture, gold stocks are set to become the world’s premier investment. The bottom crash season line: With put option insurance and the right amount of gold, investors are in the driver’s seat and will never feel cold.
