S&P 500 E-Mini Downside Probably Limited Over Next Two Days
2023.03.16 10:35
Emini daily chart
- The reversed up from a bad Low 1 short yesterday and formed a bull reversal bar closing on its high. So Emini downside probably limited over next 2 days.
- The bulls will see this as a second entry buy, and they want a strong entry bar today, forcing the bears to exit.
- More likely, the bulls will be disappointed today, and it will not be a strong entry bar.
- The bulls have done a good job damaging the bear case. However, they still need to do more. Last week’s selloff was strong enough that the odds are the market will not go straight up. This means that sideways is more likely.
- The bears hope that a reversal up above yesterday’s buy signal will lead to a second entry short (Low 2). However, yesterday’s buy signal bar is strong enough to limit the downside for at least the next few bars.
- Overall, the market will probably continue sideways for several bars. The bulls want to reverse the market and get a close above the March 2nd low, and the bears want to get a second leg down from last week’s selloff.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is down 12 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The Globex market sold off overnight, testing the opening range of yesterday’s U.S. Session.
- The bulls are trying to form a higher lower of the last two days and rally during today’s day session.
- Traders should expect a trading range open and be cautious about trading the first 6 bars of the day.
- Most traders should focus on catching the opening swing trade that usually begins before the end of the second hour.
- Because of yesterday’s strong buy signal bar on the daily chart, traders should expect the downside to be limited.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Here are several reasonable stop-entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These, therefore, are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
