S&P 500 E-Mini: Another Leg Down Likely

10/23/2023

3 minutes read

2023.10.23 08:20

Al Brooks

Market Overview: S&P 500 Emini Futures

The market is forming another leg down after reversing into a big outside bear bar. The bulls want a reversal up from a wedge bull flag. The Bears want a strong breakout far below the October 3 low.

S&P 500 Emini Futures

This week’s Emini candlestick was a big outside bear bar closing near its low.
Last week, we said that the odds slightly favor the market to still be in the sideways to up pullback phase. Traders will see if the bulls can continue creating follow-through buying or will next week trade lower and retest the October 3 low instead.
This week traded above last week’s high but reversed into a big bear bar testing the Oct 3 low.
So far, the bulls have not yet been able to close back above the 20-week exponential moving average.
They see the move down (from July 27) simply as a 50% pullback (of the move which started in March) within a broad bull channel.
They want a reversal from a small double bottom with the October 3 low or a wedge bull flag.
The bulls will need a strong reversal bar or a micro double bottom before they would be willing to buy aggressively.
Previously, the bears got a two-legged pullback testing the breakout point (Feb 2) and the bull trend line.
They want a strong breakout below the bull trend line with follow-through selling.
They want another leg down from a double top bear flag (Sept 1 and Oct 17) to complete the wedge pattern with the first 2 legs being August 18 and October 3. The third leg down is likely underway.
Since this week’s candlestick is a big bear bar closing near its low, it is a sell signal bar for next week.
The market may gap down on Monday. Small gaps usually close early.
For now, odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little lower and for the third leg down forming the wedge pattern.
Traders will see if the bears can get a strong bear bar trading far below the October 3 low, or will the market trades slightly lower, but closes with a long tail or a bull body.
While the market may still trade sideways to down for a couple more weeks, the bull trend remains intact; higher highs, higher lows.

Emini-Daily Chart

The Emini traded higher earlier in the week but sold off from Wednesday into Friday, forming 3 consecutive bear bars.
Last week, we said that the odds slightly favor at least a small second leg sideways to up and traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying or will the market trade slightly higher but stall around the October 12 high area.
This week formed a small second leg sideways to up but stalled around the October 12 high area and reversed lower. The bears got what they wanted.
Previously, the bears got a 50% pullback of the rally which started in March, testing the February 2 high which was the breakout point of the rally.
They now have another leg down from a double-top bear flag (Sept 1 and Oct 17), forming the wedge pattern with the first two legs being August 18 and October 3.
They want a strong breakout below the October 3 low with sustained follow-through selling.
The Bulls want a reversal from a small double bottom with the October 3 low.
If the market trades lower, they want a reversal up from a lower low major trend reversal and a wedge pattern with the first two legs being August 18 and October 3.
They see the current move down since July 27 simply as a 50% pullback and a test of the breakout point (Feb 2) of the rally.
They hope to get a retest of the July 27 high and a strong breakout above.
Since Friday was a bear bar closing near its low, it is a sell signal bar for Monday.
The market may gap down on Monday. Small gaps usually close early.
Odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little lower.
Traders will see if the bears can create sustained follow-through selling or will the market trade slightly lower but stall not far away from the October 3 low area.
For now, while the market may still trade sideways to down for a few more weeks, the bull trend remains intact. This remains true.