S&P 500 Climbs 25.7% YTD: Key Technical Indicators Point to Continued Uptrend
2024.11.21 12:09
We are up 31.40%; is up 25.7% so far this year. The top window is the SPY. We noted in shaded pink the times when the SPY was up 5 days or more in a row. Five days up or more suggests the market will be higher within five days over 70% of the time. This “rule” is now being stretched to more than five days, extending to more than 10 days before a new high is seen. We pointed out on the volume chart the “Selling Climax” of last Friday’s suggesting the pull back as ended. There can be tests of the “Selling Climax” low but is not required. Seasonality is bullish into yearend, and the trend remains up. Long SPX on 10/29/24 at 5832.92.
We updated this chart from yesterday, we said, “The bottom window is the NYSE advancing/NYSE declining with a 5 day average. Lows in the SPY are found when this indicator falls below .70 (Friday’s close came in at .68). We used to use .65, but .70 seems to work just as well. We used this indicator at the last low in late October. Notice that when the indicator reaches .70 or lower, the market decline is generally over, though there can be minor new lows. The intermediate-term trend is up until at least year-end.”
We updated this chart from yesterday and yesterday’s commentary still stands, “GDX may have turned the corner to the upside. The bottom window is the daily GDX/GLD ratio with its Bollinger band; the Next (LON:) higher window is the GDX (NYSE:) cumulative Advance/decline with its Bollinger band; Next higher window is the GDX cumulative up-down volume with its Bollinger band, and the top window is the GDX with its Bollinger band. Bearish signals are triggered when 3 of the 4 indicators reach the upper Bollinger band and turn down (noted with blue dotted lines). Bullish signals are triggered when 3 of the four indicators reach the lower Bollinger bands and turn up (noted with dotted red lines). We shaded the current setup in shaded green; notice that all four indicators turned up, suggesting a low has been made.”
