S&P 500 Bearish, While GDX Is in an Uptrend
2023.07.26 17:44
The second window up from the bottom is the hourly () and the next higher window is the hourly . Bearish signs form when the SPY makes higher highs and the VIX makes higher lows. We noted those times shaded in pink. The current bearish sign started in late June and is ongoing so far. With the VIX rising along with the SPY, a reaction in the market is possible.
We updated this chart from yesterday and what we said yesterday still stands, “The bottom window is the 10 day average of the TRIN; next higher window is the 21 day average and next window higher is the 63 day average. All three moving averages of the TRIN reached bearish levels in late June early July. These signals can occur before a top in the market forms. We use this type of indicator to warn us that a pullback may be coming. The market appears to be becoming a little exuberated which in turn may stall the rally. We sold our long position on Friday and waiting for the next setup. In general the market looks more sideways the next few weeks rather than a big pullback.”
Bottom window is the 18 day average for the advance/decline percent for VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:) and next higher window is the 18 day average for the up down volume percent for GDX. In a nutshell, when both indicators are above -10 (noted in blue); GDX is in an uptrend. Current readings stand at +25.20 (bottom window) and +24.54 (next higher window). When both indicators fall below -10 is when GDX may start to consolidate. As for now GDX is in the bullish mode.
SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX 6/21/23 at 4365.69; sold 7/21/23 4536.34=gain 3.91%.
Long SPX on 2/6/23 at 4110.98; Sold 6/16/23 at 4409.59 = gain of 7.26%. Gain since 12/20/22=17.68%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
