S&P 500: Bearish Indicators Point to Challenges Ahead After Strong Gain in 2024
2025.01.09 12:53
- Our gain 1/1/24 to 12/31/24 = 29.28%; SPX gain 23.67%.
- Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%.
- Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
We are up 29.28% for 2024; up 23.67% for the year. The bottom window is the 100 day average of the which is near 5 months of TRIN closes. We have shown the 63 day average of the TRIN (3 months of trin closes) in recent reports which we pointed out, leaned bearish. The 100 day TRIN reaching 1.00 and lower (current reading is .99) is a bearish intermediate sign for the market. Chart above goes back to 2010 and we marked times with red and blue lines when 100 day TRIN < 1.00. Going back to 2010 (15 years) there where 8 times 1.00 was reached of which 6 market significant tops (75%). Our point is that 2025 may be a difficult year.
We listed the panic TRIN closes in blue going back to late December (trin closes above 1.20 suggest panic and panic only forms near lows). The TRIN closes near and above 1.20 came in near the 587 level on the SPY and suggests this area has support. We noted in shaded green where a gap lies and that gap was tested today on higher volume suggesting this gap may not hold as support. Got conflicting indicators short term. The bigger trend may be toping (according to the 63 and 100 day TRIN) and the short-term trend is unclear but maybe starting to form a low. Not seeing a good setup right now.
We updated this chart from yesterday and yesterday’s commentary still stands, “The bottom window is the weekly GDX/GLD ratio dating back to 2009. We noted in red dotted lines when this ratio reached near .145 or lower (current reading is .145). Previous times when this ratio reached .145 and lower, VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:) was at an intermediate-term low.”
