Recap and Action Plan: What’s Next for Small Caps, Beans, Oil?
2023.11.20 03:14
Since we came back from vacation, I wrote 3 Daily’s.
The first one was on the Economic Modern Family and how it opened its loving arms to the bulls.
I was particularly keen on small caps or the ().
IWM-Daily and Monthly Chart
I wrote, “Beginning with IWM or Granddad Russell 2000, Monday began with a gap up over the 50-DMA (blue).
We will watch for a phase change confirm. Furthermore, the monthly chart shows IWM back above the 80-month MA (green). Resistance at 191 area is on tap if IWM holds above 174.”
Phase change-YES
Holding 174-YES
Still above the 80-month MA-YES
Is 191 on tap if continues to hold-YES.
SOYB-Daily and Monthly Chart
Next, I wrote a Daily about Soybeans as the next potential parabolic runner.
“Meanwhile, the Teucrium Soybean Fund (NYSE:) saw a huge influx of investor money.
The monthly chart featured shows prices hovering around all-time highs.
In 2012 the high was 28.88. In July this year, SOYB made a new high at 29.43.
The sideways consolidation on this monthly chart suggests a move to 34-35 is possible.”
The daily chart is in a bullish phase – yes.
The futures contract here, shown through the continuous contract and not the January 2024 contract, looks different.
The continuous contract is under the 23-month MA while the futures contract of the ETF sits above the 23-month.
Sideways consolidation-YES
Ready to run? -NOT YET.
But watch for a move over 1400 in the January 2024 contract as a good start provided this holds 1250.
The next Daily this week was titled: the New Gold-Buy When There’s Blood in the Street
The thesis was oil is a buy just as everyone got bearish. Just like , “you buy it when it looks awful, sell it when it looks strong.”
The futures contract (December) shows you that $72 held Friday with a move to nearly $76.
Was it a buy with blood in the streets? YES
Do we have a support level now?- YES
This coming week, watch for oil to get over $76 to continue the rally.
ETF Summary
- S&P 500 (SPY) 450 clears see 465 Under 450 435 support
- Russell 2000 (IWM) 181 resistance 174 support
- Dow (DIA) 360 resistance 346 support
- Nasdaq (QQQ) 388 must clear and 370 must hold
- Regional banks (KRE) 45 big resistance
- Semiconductors (SMH) 160-161 pivotal support
- Transportation (IYT) 235 support
- Biotechnology (IBB) 120 pivotal
- Retail (XRT) 65 resistance and 60 pivotal support
