Q4 Earnings Beat Rate and Surprise Factor Well Above Average So Far
2025.01.20 08:02
Q4 earnings season officially kicked off this week with 21 companies (mostly financials) reporting earnings.
14 companies beat estimates, 6 missed, and 1 tied. The average “surprise factor” was 6.4%; meaning companies reported earnings an average of 6.4% higher than street expectations this week.
Altogether about 8% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings so far. The beat rate is currently 81%, which is well above average and hasn’t been this high since Q3 2023. Earnings have come in 10.6% above expectations, which is also well above average and hasn’t been this good since Q3 2021. Total earnings growth for Q4 so far is +10.7%, on sales growth of +4.1%.
Forward EPS (estimated earnings over the next 12 months – blue line) has jumped to a record $273.18 as we rolled into the next quarter/year, while trailing EPS (reported earnings over the last 12 months – red line) is also a record $242.46.
The expected earnings growth rate is now +12.7%, while reported growth rate is +10.2%.
The forward price-to-earnings ratio based on Friday’s close is now 22x, which is still about 30% above the historical average for both trailing and forward EPS
While the risk premium over bonds, show stocks haven’t been this expensive in about 20 years.
Solid start to Q4 so far, but still have a long way to go. The majority of the S&P 500 will report earnings in the next 2-3 weeks, so we’ll get a much better picture then. Based on current valuations, a lot of good news has already been priced in.
