Outlook 2025: Key Trends and Risk Parameters for the Year Ahead
2025.01.03 05:44
I hope everyone had a wonderful holiday and has a very happy and successful New Year.
I spent time with my actual family and of course, watched my Economic Modern Family carefully.
It will be extremely useful as I do what I do-combine fundamental, logical analysis, along with tips to execute trades with expert timing using technical analysis.
As far as the Family, we love the January Trend Trade, but we can also speculate based on the weekly charts what the Family is saying on day one of 2025. 
Granny Retail remains a key player. While we would like to see XRT regain leadership, for now, the main thing is holding around $78, or where the massive consolidation breakout began last year.
Granddad (), has a few key points of support to hold. $217 is one. The 50-week moving average at around $212.45 is another. If IWM has any legs at all, it must also clear back above $227.
Big Brother Biotechnology ) starts the year with issues. However, if IBB can manage to hang on to $130 good. Over $135 is even better.
Swinging over to Prodigal Son Regional Banks , the 200-week moving average (green line) at $58 if good, should offer support. Right now, a move back over $65 seems like a Herculean task.
Transportation literally dances on the 50-WMA after making new all-time highs back in November. For the Dow theorists, IYT must do something better than this. Can it? Over $70 would be way better, but under $66, no fun.
Sister Semiconductors has been the savior for years. Can she do it again? SMH has not traded under the 50-WMA since January 2023 when the fun began.
And the January trend trade showed us the way! Now, we wait for her to do her magic and lead, a $35-40 drop from current levels is quite likely. 
The weekly chart of ProShares Bitcoin ETF (NYSE:) the ETF looks so much better than everyone else. While fell to around $90,000, that it held and now trades back above $97,000 most likely means it will retest $108,000 and go higher still. BITO must hold the converging 50 and 200-WMAs.
To see more click on Outlook 2025.
We will continue to monitor The Modern Family of course. The calendar range will be huge!
In the meantime, we have risk parameters for our existing positions and are taking a patient stance on executing new trades.
ETF Summary
- (Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
- S&P 500 (SPY) 580 support-caution phase
- Russell 2000 (IWM) 213-217 support-caution phase
- Dow (DIA) Looks weakest. 420 pivotal support-caution phase
- Nasdaq (QQQ) 504 support and now in an unconfirmed caution phase
- Regional banks (KRE) 65 resistance 58 support
- Semiconductors (SMH) 235-240 range to watch
- Transportation (IYT) 66 key support
- Biotechnology (IBB) 130 major support
- Retail (XRT) 78 support
- iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) While this had a good drop, it is holding above key support at 78
