Commodities Analysis and Opinion

Oil Tries to Break Downtrend

2023.07.24 10:41

FxPro Financial Services Ltd

rebounded on Monday after four weeks of gains. Today’s rise of 1.2% to $77.7 per barrel of WTI is not remarkable in terms of momentum, but it is noteworthy for its potential impact on the technical picture.

Crude Oil trying to break though the downtrend Crude Oil trying to break though the downtrend

At the end of last week, WTI broke through the previous local highs and climbed above the descending channel’s resistance, signalling a break in the trend that oil has been following for the past twelve months. On Monday, the rally continued, and we noted a break above the 200-day moving average, which has been acting as resistance since August 2022.

If oil does not turn sharply lower in the next few days and returns to the established range below the 200-day average, the main scenario will be a rise to the $83 area, where the 161.8% Fibonacci levels from the June lows to the July 13 peak and the April reversal levels are concentrated.

Potentially lower Crude Oil supply in the USPotentially lower Crude Oil supply in the US

Meanwhile, data highlights the decline in drilling activity, with the number of oil production rigs falling to 530, down 12% year-on-year to the lowest since March 2022. The latest production data showed stagnation at 12.3 million BPD, with crude oil inventories now 7.2% higher than a year ago. These figures do not suggest a boom in the upstream sector. However, oil prices are falling as OPEC+ cuts supply faster than demand slows.

Oil may reject the reality of lower demand for a relatively long time, but sooner or later, the impact of the fundamentals will prevail. The odds are very high that oil is now making a false break of the downtrend and will soon return to its established range under the pressure of high-interest rates and a deteriorating economic outlook.

The FxPro Analyst Team

Source link

Related Articles

Back to top button
bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 82,074.99 1.66%
ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) $ 1,893.43 0.90%
tether
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00 0.00%
xrp
XRP (XRP) $ 2.29 2.52%
bnb
BNB (BNB) $ 581.02 0.54%
solana
Solana (SOL) $ 124.76 0.36%
usd-coin
USDC (USDC) $ 1.00 0.01%
cardano
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.709859 1.46%
dogecoin
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.168219 0.86%
tron
TRON (TRX) $ 0.223799 0.51%
staked-ether
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 1,889.86 0.76%
pi-network
Pi Network (PI) $ 1.68 1.67%
wrapped-bitcoin
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 81,806.92 1.75%
leo-token
LEO Token (LEO) $ 9.72 0.34%
chainlink
Chainlink (LINK) $ 13.33 0.79%
stellar
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.272438 2.44%
usds
USDS (USDS) $ 1.00 0.05%
wrapped-steth
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 2,260.46 1.19%
hedera-hashgraph
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.188737 3.49%
avalanche-2
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 18.61 0.90%
shiba-inu
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000013 2.63%
the-open-network
Toncoin (TON) $ 2.80 3.07%
sui
Sui (SUI) $ 2.18 3.28%
litecoin
Litecoin (LTC) $ 88.80 1.06%
bitcoin-cash
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 326.88 3.87%
mantra-dao
MANTRA (OM) $ 6.24 3.56%
polkadot
Polkadot (DOT) $ 4.03 1.63%
ethena-usde
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 1.00 0.01%
weth
WETH (WETH) $ 1,894.47 0.93%
binance-bridged-usdt-bnb-smart-chain
Binance Bridged USDT (BNB Smart Chain) (BSC-USD) $ 0.999741 0.03%
bitget-token
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 4.22 0.65%
hyperliquid
Hyperliquid (HYPE) $ 13.32 4.32%
whitebit
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 28.14 1.46%
wrapped-eeth
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 2,010.89 0.93%
monero
Monero (XMR) $ 207.85 0.25%
uniswap
Uniswap (UNI) $ 5.88 0.68%
susds
sUSDS (SUSDS) $ 1.04 0.05%
near
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 2.63 2.49%
dai
Dai (DAI) $ 0.99982 0.01%
aptos
Aptos (APT) $ 5.13 0.05%
pepe
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000007 1.44%
ethereum-classic
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 18.17 2.38%
ondo-finance
Ondo (ONDO) $ 0.837382 1.87%
internet-computer
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 5.51 0.06%
okb
OKB (OKB) $ 41.93 0.76%
gatechain-token
Gate (GT) $ 20.51 1.72%
coinbase-wrapped-btc
Coinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) $ 82,093.00 1.54%
aave
Aave (AAVE) $ 163.69 5.00%
mantle
Mantle (MNT) $ 0.725955 2.96%
official-trump
Official Trump (TRUMP) $ 11.62 7.62%