Oil, Gold Tumble as Central Bank Tightening Threatens Global Outlook
2023.06.23 04:23
Oil prices are going to remain heavy as central bank tightening will kill the global growth outlook. Energy traders will keep a close eye on today’s stockpile that might show a modest draw. The oil market will remain heavy until European inflation eases. could make a run towards the $70 region but should rebound once we finally see significant easing come from Beijing.
A bullish EIA inventory report was unable to stop WTI crude’s selling pressure. Stockpiles declined by 3.8 million barrels, much than the 1.2 million draw API reported yesterday. Weekly oil demand climbed to the highest levels since last December. In fact all key demand drivers (gasoline and distillates) improved from a week ago. Cushing supplies also declined for the first time in nine weeks. Rig counts are also coming down, which supports the idea that production won’t be going up much further from here.
Gold
prices are declining after central bank-a-palooza saw larger-than-expected tightening across several European central banks. The global growth outlook is getting slashed and that could trigger a safe-haven move back into the dollar and not necessarily gold. Global bond yields are surging across the board. The rose 8.7bps to 3.806%, while the 10-year German bund rose 5.7bps to 2.489%. The German 10-year Bund yield and 2-year yield inverted to its widest level since 1992. If technical selling accelerates, gold could see pressure towards the $1900 region.
Bitcoin
is holding onto its gains that came after a few financial giants have made commitments to crypto. Crypto short-sellers did not want to bet against BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF filing, as that might be triggering optimism the SEC might finally be ready to grant an ETF approval.
Bitcoin momentum could make an run towards the mid-$30,000 region, but if the central banks globally remain hawkish, that could kill risk appetite.
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