Natural Gas Hit’s A Seasonal Ceiling Already
2022.05.15 10:16
Natural gas had a volatile week before closing 5.2% lower than the previous one at $7.62. EIA reported on Thursday a build of 76 Bcf in working underground stocks for the week ended May 6.
Total inventory is currently at 1,643 Bcf, 18.6% lower y/y, 16% below the 5-year average. Both percentages are looking steady and EIA is now projecting that the end of the refill season in November will find the inventory level to be 9% below the 5-year average, which is very fine, all considered.
We wanted to let the market decide, or us in May, after we took 40% on this seasonal uptrend. We already had identified a seasonal ceiling for this market at around $7.00 for the autumn contracts and, as we did last year, we will only feel contempt about anything above this price level.
The smart move here is for us to identify a seasonal floor for the spring of 2023 which will be around $3.50. Range bound behavior on hedging activity is very likely for the summer contracts.
We stay with the near term charts trading both ways for another couple of months. Then we will need to sell any rally on exhaustion until March. I have talked about the U.S. natural gas exports in past recent analysis.
Given the seriousness of the situation in energy pricing policies and their implications for the global economy amid wealth destruction across the board, allow me a more general comment.
In Homer’s language we use the term “parsley” for someone who is constantly in the media saying vagueness, not contributing to the solution of any problem. The UAE Minister of Energy has been doing all he can in recent months to just do Vladimir Putin and OPEC+ a favor and thus contribute to the continuation of the Russian invasion and the war in Ukraine.
It is inconceivable that the cartel could not produce just 5% and 10% more oil for a period of time when this is necessary. Excuses for lack of investment simply do not stand on the basis of data.
An energy minister saying that he was not invited to Cop26 in Glasgow shows the size of his complex. Is he the country’s energy minister or is he the oil minister?
No more such stinginess. With all the banks and taxpayers giving avert and for as long as needed, with Technically Recoverable Resources at record highs globally, look what happened in Guyana recently, right next to Venezuela.
The stinginess of some producer countries, for their public finances in the face of the energy transition is multiplying by 3 the world’s inflation. It is discrediting for the Oil and Gas industry as a whole.
For the commodity itself. I hope we do not have to fight for the last barrels that will burn as Putin decided three months ago. I hope we understand that the Norwegians who produce 98% of their electricity from hydroelectric power are the ones who are right.
U.S. macro data and the dollar against majors have to be monitored routinely. Quantitative tightening is here to stay for another couple of years because of the above.
Daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI are pointing to entry areas.
Nat Gas 4-H Chart
