More Resilient Economic Data Increases Risk of a Harder Landing Eventually
2023.06.30 02:56
It’s been a mixed trading session on Thursday as we get more evidence of economic resilience from the US which has left investors wondering whether they’ve once again underestimated how much monetary tightening is going to be necessary.
This has been a common theme this year with markets repeatedly reflecting a far more optimistic outlook on interest rates despite the economic figures continuing to outperform. Investors are finally, reluctantly, coming around to the Fed’s way of thinking although we are still seeing a surprising amount of resilience in stock markets considering every additional rate hike increases the risk of recession and a harder landing.
The first quarter number was the most surprising given it significantly surpassed expectations but initial jobless claims were also much lower than forecasts and the recent trend. Resilience is not something we usually complain about but on this occasion, it could be to the economy’s detriment.
Consolidating after the recent surge
remains in consolidation between $30,000 and $31,000 after jumping more than 20% over the last couple of weeks on the back of some favourable news flow. It hasn’t all been favourable recently, of course, but perhaps the ETF filings are viewed as a more significant development than the SEC charges which could ultimately prove to be a positive if it creates some much needed clarity on the regulatory landscape.
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