Stock Markets Analysis and Opinion

Markets Hanging On – Just Barely

2022.05.09 13:41

Markets lost more ground on Friday, but the extent of losses was not enough to suggest there was a confirmed break of support across indices—although some are closer to others.

The NASDAQ had the worse of Friday’s action as it undercut the existing May low with a small candlestick, but one which left any buyer of the index for 2022 in the red.

Not exactly one to build confidence although some breadth metrics are already at levels where reversals happen.

Markets Hanging On - Just BarelyCOMPQ Daily Chart

The S&P finished right on support as it closed the week with a ‘neutral’ doji. The net effect was to generate an uptick in relative performance over the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ, but whether it’s enough to lead a recovery seems a stretch.

I would be looking for the Russell 2000 to do that leg work.

Markets Hanging On - Just BarelySPX Daily Chart

The reason for optimism is the Russell 2000. The index did see a breakdown, so now the measured move target is back in play, but this target is only one or two days of selling away.

In addition, the Russell 2000 has been outperforming the indices since early April. This index will lead the other indices out of the current funk.

I had thought the March base breakout was going to do that, so now I’m looking at a successful bounce off the measured move target as the next one.

Markets Hanging On - Just BarelyIWM Daily Chart

For the coming week, keep an eye on the Russell 2000. Futures are looking bleak, so we may see a gap down, but I would be looking for a bullish hammer or some other long-spike candlestick in the Russell 2000 to mark a capitulation reversal.

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