Is This a ‘No-Recession Recession’? Experts Drop the Ball Once Again

2023.06.07 09:50

• CEO of a well-known fund recently said we’re in a ‘no-recession recession’
• This is after the markets rallied, the economy remained strong
• It seems like the ‘finance gurus’ were wrong, once again

I was somewhere between incredulous and amused this morning when I read from a well-known American news agency that the CEO (so not just anyone) of Apollo Global Management, a well-known private equity fund, reported that we are in a “no-recession/recession” scenario.

Source: Bloomberg

This would be a scenario (according to them) where the economy remains strong while markets suffer.

Now, here are my 2 cents:

• The markets seem to be doing everything but suffering, so I don’t really know what they were looking at
• Either we are in a recession, or we are NOT

Am I the only one who finds certain things ridiculous?

In any case, these gentlemen in the world of finance who look down on everyone, as I have often pointed out, rarely catch us. Why? Because predicting the future is impossible.

Yesterday Morgan Stanley released their forecasts for the next 6 months of how they think the markets will do by the end of the year, with the scenario in the chart below.

MS & Co. S&P 500 Target for 2023 Year-End

Source: Isabelnet

Now, how do you predict where the markets will be 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, or 1 year from now?

It is impossible!

We can’t be certain about predicting the market 15 years from now, but we know that returns tend to fall within a specific range over the long term.

Yet many investors still base their investment and life choices on these assumptions.

The Financial Times wrote an article in mid-May saying that algorithms drive the bullish market and that we should not trust them because they are buying (and thus pushing the market up) on technical and systematic grounds.

But I say: do we care?

The only thing we are reasonably certain of, and 200 years of history says so, is that owning U.S./Global equities for a sufficiently long period (at least 10-15 years) dramatically increases the likelihood of bringing home positive returns.

And we are also reasonably certain that if a stock has good underlying fundamentals and if we tend to buy when prices are at a discount, our chances of success will be greater.

Remember that Investing is, by definition, dealing with uncertainty. Our ability to succeed in the markets doesn’t come from eliminating uncertainty but rather from taking actions based on our understanding of the market’s nature.

These actions increase our probability of success to some extent.

What happens to the markets tomorrow or by the end of 2023?

I don’t know, but playing the historical odds is always better than listening to ‘finance gurus.’

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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only; it does not constitute a solicitation, offer, advice, counseling, or investment recommendation. As such, it is not intended to incentivize the purchase of assets in any way. I would like to remind you that any asset is evaluated from multiple points of view and is highly risky. Therefore, any investment decision and the associated risk remain with the investor.

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