Is that it? Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…
2023.08.17 10:36
We don’t know (if that’s it), but in our July 27 note, we put out the following warning:
In this week’s AAII Sentiment Survey result, Bullish Percent(Video Explanation) dropped to 44.9% from 51.4% the previous week. Bearish Percent rose to 24.1% from 21.5% The retail investor is still optimistic. This can stay elevated for some time based on positioning coming into these levels, but it would not surprise us to see a little give-back in coming weeks (even if we were to push a bit higher first). Keep in mind, institutional investors are nowhere near fully invested yet, so there will be a persistent bid on any bumpy pullbacks through year-end.
In our weekly podcast|videocast – we also emphasized the probability of 3-5% pullbacks coming in this normal seasonally weak period – that would be bought by institutions having to play “catch up.” So now we got it, and we think getting close to the point where we should begin to see some institutional cash step in:
Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator
NYSE McClellan Oscillator
SPX % PM Xover BUY Signals
CBOR Options Total Put/Call Ratio
What Now?
Last night I joined Phil Yin on CGTN America “Global Business” to discuss the Fed Minutes, Earnings, Stock Market Outlook, what we’re buying and selling – and more. Thanks to Phil and Ryan Gallagher for having me on:
Some notes ahead of my segment:
10 of 12 days down. We were out 2 weeks ago expecting a 3-5% pullback. We’re at 4.3% now. Seasonally weak period.
Years With a Big First Half Tend to Consolidate Around Now
source: Ryan Detrick
Dips will be back because managers who missed 1H rally have to play “catch up.”
Stocks…Institutional allocation catching up with Individual Inves
Managers still taking as low of risk in their portfolio as Covid lows and 2009 lows.
Still overweight t-bills and underweight equities relative to 20yr history. Cash levels slowly coming down but elevated.
FMS OW bonds, staples, EM and UW REITs, equities, EU vs history
BofA Global FMS Cash Rule contrarian ‘Buy’ signal ends
Q2 Earnings +3% YOY (ex-energy).
GDPNow +5.8% Q3
Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP estimate for 2023: Q3
Retail Sales:
Retails sales, percent change from prior month
2 dissenters. This is NEW. Prior to these minutes all members were UNANIMOUS.
Source: WSJ Timiraos 8-16-23
13.5% chance of September hike following Fed Minutes – up from 11%:
Target Rate Probabilities for 20 Sep 2023 FED Meeting
Source: CME
PYPL: EPS GROWTH Next Year 13.90%.
Next 5 Years (per annum) 17.37%
10.5x forward PE vs. historic avg 35x
Mid-Teens return on capital compounded over a decade:
Mid-Teens return on capital compounded over a decade
The new PayPal (NASDAQ:) CEO will be will be Alex Chriss (46yo), president and general manager of Intuit’s small business and self-employed group. 25-bagger over the past 15 years. One of the greatest growth stories in history. He was responsible for 1/2 of the revenues.
2H Playbook
On Friday morning I joined Ann Berry and Khloe Hale on Public to discuss our playbook for the rest of the year. Inflation, Rates, Dollar, Banks, what to do with “Big Tech” (AMZN, GOOGL) and a lot more..
Alibaba (NYSE:) Update and the Most Important Investing Lesson I Can Share With You:
And finally, I joined Marcel Munch on his podcast “East West Investment Opportunities” this Tuesday. The podcast is focused on China. You can find it on youtube or twitter. We couldn’t have picked a better day to do it as all of the Chinese stocks were swimming in a sea of RED (pun intended)!
That said, if you listen to this full interview and internalize the investment concept I am emphasizing, you can make exceptional amounts of money over a career. Understand the concept fully and it will change how you think about investing for good:
Sentiment
This Tuesday, Bank of America (NYSE:) published its monthly “Fund Manager Survey.” I posted a summary here:
Global Fund Manager Survey
Here were the 7 key points:
1. Institutions still playing “catch up”:
Stocks…Institutional allocation catching up with Individual Inves
2. Sentiment has A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE WE HIT EXUBERANCE
FMS sentiment least bearish since Feb’22
:3. Managers still taking the lowest risk since the Covid and GFC lows:
What level of risk do you think you’re currently taking in your inv
4. Recession expectations JUST STARTING TO RECOVER:
Recession expectations for the global economy are fading…
5. Equity allocation 1.3SD below long term average:
Net% AA Say they are overweight Equities
6. 2nd most crowded trade is short China!
…and Long Big Tech remains the most crowded trade for the 5th mo
7. A long way to go until managers are at an extreme (OW and exuberant equities):
Investors shifting out of cash and back into equities..
Now onto the shorter term view for the General Market:
In this week’s AAII Sentiment Survey result, Bullish Percent (Video Explanation) dropped to 35.9% from 44.7% the previous week. Bearish Percent rose to 30.1% from 25.5%. The retail investor is showing some renewed trepidation.
Sentiment Survey Historical Data
The CNN “Fear and Greed” dropped from 67 last week to 52 this week. You can learn how this indicator is calculated and how it works here: (Video Explanation)
UN – CNN Fear and Greed Index
And finally, the NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers Index) (Video Explanation) dropped to 65.49% this week from 78.4% equity exposure last week.
