Is Canada a Canary in the Economic Coalmine?
2024.12.13 05:43
On Wednesday, the cut its key benchmark rate by 50bps. They have now cut by 150 bps in 2024, compared to what will likely be 100 bps for the after next week’s meeting. Unlike the Fed, Canada’s central bank is fighting off a recession.
Canadian real for the last four quarters has been below 1%. Its unemployment rate troughed in January 2022 at a fifty-year low of 4.9%. However, since then, it has risen steadily to 6.8%. The has been trading at its lowest levels compared to the since 2016 (excluding the pandemic).
We should pay attention because the U.S. economy and Canada are extremely closely linked despite being different. The biggest differentiator is that Canada’s economy relies much more heavily on commodities and manufacturing, while the U.S. is more service-sector-oriented. Despite the differences, there has been a historically tight economic relationship between Canada and the US, as shown below.
Is Canada’s recent slumping economy a warning for U.S. investors? Conversely, should we ignore it, assuming that Canada’s reliance on commodities and manufacturing, which are also in a slump in the U.S., is solely to blame for the recent divergence?
What To Watch Today
Earnings
- No earnings reports today.
Economy
Market Trading Update
in the latest NFIB report. It isn’t just small business owners who are optimistic; it is analysts as well. The stock market has had a remarkable return this year, with the Magnificent 7 doing the bulk of the work. Such has pushed Wall Street analysts to become more bullish with their outlooks, with every analyst predicting higher returns next year.
While nothing is wrong with those outlooks, we must remember that those gains come on top of two years of exceptionally strong returns in an environment of high valuations, elevated interest rates, and inflation.
Earnings forecasts, as discussed in this past weekend’s , are also very optimistic, with expectations well above the long-term trend growth of earnings over time.
Add to that consumer confidence in higher stock prices over the next 12 months, and you can start to visualize our concerns about 2025, where the markets may have difficulty living up to expectations.
As we head into year-end, we are considering our current portfolio positioning and what risks may derail those more optimistic outlooks for 2025. From a purely technical perspective, on a longer-term basis, the market is very deviated, extended, and overbought. Historically, this has not worked out well and eventually led to a short-term correction or bear market.
While there is always the possibility that this time could be different, we would be remiss in not considering the possibility that it isn’t.
Trade accordingly.
U.S. vs. Canada
There is an escalating feud between Canada and the U.S. over tariffs. The Ontario Province Premier, Doug Ford, said his province might stop exporting oil, electricity, steel, and many other metals and minerals to the U.S. Ford’s harsh comments are likely a staunch negotiation tactic to try and get the Trump administration to back off on tariffs. Per AP, Doug Ford stated:
“We will use every tool in our tool box to fight back. We can’t sit back and roll over. We just won’t as a country. And isn’t this a shame, our closest friends and allies.” -Doug Ford (NYSE:)
Prime Minister Trudeau admits that tariffs on Canada would be “absolutely devastating.” However, he also knows that Canada has some leverage, which, if forced to counter tariff actions, can create some hardships for the U.S., albeit not nearly as severe as in Canada.
This is what ugly negotiations broadcast over the media look like. If the verbal battle rages and potentially escalates, the markets may take notice. If you recall, the did not fare well in 2018 as tariffs were imposed. The graph below shows the Canadian dollar is near the lower end of its 25-year range. Breaking that range could be problematic for Canada, so they must balance rhetoric with amicable negotiations.
