Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Fight the Fed

2023.02.06 07:01

It was a good week with most of the economic news and certainly with the markets. Will it continue?

We are not prognosticators, but there are plenty of Pros and Cons.

As they often say on Wall Street, good news may be bad news. A few situations occurred this past week that may eventually lead to unexpected and unfavorable future actions.

Let’s explore these together:

The Federal Reserve

It was Fed week. As expected, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) pulled the trigger on yet another overnight lending hike of 25 basis points (0.25%), the smallest such hike in a year. As you recall, the last 4 hikes were all 75 basis points. This was largely expected.

This brings the rate upto 4.50% to 4.75%. Their published statement started off hawkish with the persistence of inflation and the need to get rates to the target of 5.25%, as outlined in previous Fed meetings. That equates to another 2 – 25 bp rate hikes in the next few months.

The stock market’s initial reaction was negative.

Then the post-announcement press conference by the Chairman began. His answers to probing and piercing questions about the slowing economy immediately softened his hawkishness. Words such as “we see a deceleration of inflation” was enough to send the stock market into an explosive move higher.

Our opinion: The Fed means business. We have often commented in these weekly Outlooks that inflation is a punishing and insidious tax on Americans. Inflation has led to a huge increase in jobs, but not in the way that you think. (see next section).

Since I was a young student taking economics classes in college, I learned that “you don’t fight the Fed.” We are in a non-accommodative monetary policy period. Also, investors NEED to remember that the Fed is reducing its multi-trillion bond portfolio. We look for rates to stay elevated for higher and for longer.

We do not believe the Fed will pivot anytime soon.

Our own Director of Research and Market Analyst Mish Schneider often comments during her National TV appearances that when inflation gets as elevated as we have experienced the past few years, it usually takes years to bring it down. We most likely will not see the 2.0% Fed target for some time. Therefore the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy will continue. It will adversely affect consumers and should continue to put pressure on earnings and the multiples that are used to price stocks.

Good News? An Unprecedented January Jobs Report, but Is It Real?

As we’ve pointed out, and the markets have confirmed, January can be a volatile month for stock prices. As it turns out, January can be a predictably volatile month for employment data too.

Some economists refer to the January payrolls report and the “January seasonal adjustment report”, and this year that description fits.

Yesterday, the job announcement was a SHOCKER! The majority of estimates were for a growth of 190,000 jobs, but the came out to over 500,000.

However, for better or worse, the headline numbers could easily be described as “too good to be true.”

Let’s look closer under the hood. Here was the announcement on CNBC in case you missed it. “WOW, WOW, WOW”

Twitter Video

Here is the link should you wish to watch a replay

This blowout Jobs report sent to 3.4%, the lowest in 54 years. Where did the job growth come from?

Looking more closely, we uncover that a few major and radical revisions occurred to the employment reporting.

First, the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) unveiled a slew of data revisions which included updating the population controls.

This has the mechanical effect of boosting the labor force and updating seasonal factors, which further distorted the January nonfarm payroll number.

All the revisions were to the upside. This made the Establishment survey data appear even stronger than it was. So strong, in fact, that there were upward revisions to all monthly payrolls reports since June 2022 as shown in the chart below:

US Non-farm Payrolls Monthly Change

The one place where the revisions were most significant was in the Household survey. This is used to calculate the actual number of employed workers.

This showed a surge in employment in January. Jobs increased by 894,000 in January, and with December’s upward revision of 717,000, the grand total becomes a 1.6 million increase in employed workers in two months. See the chart below:

Despite these massive revisions, the BLS forgot to fix the distribution between full-time and part-time workers. This is a huge mistake as shown in the chart below:

Full vs Part Time Workers

The number of full-time workers in March 2022 was 132,587,000. Forward to January 2022, and the number of full-time workers is at 132,577,000. Full-time workers during that period (10 months) dropped by 10,000 workers. Part-time workers soared from 25,908,000 to 27,400,000, an increase of 1,492,000. See the chart below:

Total Changes In Full and Part Time Jobs

In summary, the headline seasonally adjusted payrolls report showed a shocking increase of over 500,000, however, the unadjusted number was a negative 2.5 million!

So with massive seasonal distortions and all the growth coming from part-time jobs, we don’t think it was anything to celebrate.

Plus, why are so many people taking part-time jobs?

This could be due to inflation and many Americans (most) not being able to keep up with the cost of consumer goods, food, and energy.

Our opinion. This does not bode well for the long-term economic health of the country. No growth of full-time jobs over the last year is a poor reflection on the pressures of inflation on the country. This will eventually show up in stock prices. It may be hard to avoid a recession with these types of employment numbers.

Good News: The stock market has been exploding higher. Especially the and Small Caps.

Given the interpretation of good news as amplified above, the market reacted much more positively than negatively. The stock market’s positive momentum sought out what it needed to hear in order to stay on a positive trajectory.

The NASDAQ continued on its winning ways with its 5th positive week in a row. Small caps were an even bigger winner this week, up almost 4%. The NASDAQ (QQQ) and Small Cap index (IWM) are both up well over 10% YTD. This is one of the best starts for the stock market in many years.

We uncovered some great charts this week that we want to share with you. The expression that a picture tells a thousand words holds true. These charts portray a favorable and positive backdrop for the stock market in the near term.

January 2023

We have often referred to the January Trifecta and its positive projected impact for the following 11 months.. Below is the January Trifecta, factoring in January and that all three indicators that make up the Trifecta were positive:

There is also an interesting statistical edge by being up so much in the first 20 days of January. See the chart below:

SP-500-Performance

The big winners. Look at the stocks that were most beaten up in 2022. Their returns below are through January 31, 2023. Are these companies and their businesses making that much more $? Have their earnings expectations and profitability gone up enough to justify the explosion in their stock prices? We don’t think so.

Returns From 2022 Bottoms

Most of these stocks are in the NASDAQ. Part of the reason the tech-heavy index has exploded higher. See the chart below:

Nasdaq-QQQ-Chart

We just experienced a Golden Cross on the S&P 500. This is a positive long-term indicator whereby the 50-day moving average goes up through the 200-day moving average. When used correctly, this can be a very helpful indicator. It is particularly noteworthy right now because it indicates a bullish intermediate-term trend in a market that still has a bearish longer-term trend (as measured by the 200-day average).

See the chart below:

Our MarketGauge co-founder, Geoff Bysshe, believes this current Golden Cross, combined with other important inflection points, is worthy of special attention. As a result, he created a webinar and a 4-week trading program for discretionary swing traders to profit from it.

Some of the important inflection points Geoff is watching are shown in the charts below.

NYSE-Composite-Index Chart

Watch the .

Friday it reversed course and found strength on the back of the Jobs report and the possibility that the Fed does not pivot later this year (Good news is bad news). This is our opinion as well.

However, if you consider the trend of the US Dollar since October, you’ll see that it has been in a steady decline.

No coincidence, the stock market has been going up in tandem with the Dollar’s decline. (Refer to some of our 2022 Market Outlooks where we talked about how the US Dollar strength leads to lower earnings in large multinational US-headquartered companies). See the US Dollar chart below:

Also, AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) sentiment shows that the bullish sentiment has edged up slightly. However, bearish sentiment remains elevated and greater than the bullish sentiment. As we have shown in the past, this may be a positive contrarian indicator.

The result of this bearish sentiment is an enormous amount of assets sitting on the sidelines Most 401k providers have reported that there is an overabundance of capital sitting in conservative stable value and bond funds, therefore signaling that individual investors are “nervous” and “reluctant” to get invested in the stock market now.

Injured by 2022, many of these individual investors could be “late to the game,” and some of this explosive move upward is the “FOMO-Fear of Missing Out” crowd wanting to get in. See the Bullish-Bearish sentiment charts below:

AAII-Bullish-Sentiment-Chart

AAII-Bearish-Sentiment-Chart

FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is a motivation and driving force for many of the speculators that are getting invested in this market after a sharp upward move in the markets. However, as suggested above, there are MANY that are not yet invested. Reminds me of the Marty Zweig commentary from years ago.

Marty-Zweig-Quote

Our Opinion: Be careful. We may not be out of the woods yet. The stock markets have a wonderful way of sucking in money only to correct and disappoint. And the market may have gone up too far too fast.

After the type of damage done to many good companies’ stock prices last year, and with the kinds of earnings misses we are seeing this past week (Google (NASDAQ:), Amazon (NASDAQ:), Apple (NASDAQ:), Ford, etc.), we remain in the camp that believes we are in a trading range.

Here are a few other charts to show why caution is warranted:

SP 500 Index Outlook Chart

Along with our memory of the last 4 times the market had significant rallies back to its trendline. Yes, we have broken through, but there are still some lingering thoughts we could fall back below the trendline.

Again, our caution is filtered by the old adage: “Don’t Fight The Fed,” Including these other factors:

1. Institutional investors have moved assets to fixed income which at the moment presents a potential 4-6% low-risk positive return.
2. These same investors believe the stock market, given its earnings expectations, may remain overvalued.
3. Speculation fervor (FOMO) and buying the memes stocks is not a recipe for long-term bull markets.
4. High-yield bonds versus corporate bond performance give us pause about quality debt versus junk.
5. Pending layoffs by Big Tech will reverberate through the economy, and we are not sure what that effect might be.
6. Americans are struggling, and if they pull their wallets in further, this could have a dramatic effect on 70+% of GDP.
7. We are not yet sold that we will avoid a Recession. If that were to occur, the stock market would have to reprice that sort of downturn.
8. Geopolitical risk is heightened. The China Balloon and Russia rhetoric are just two of several ongoing geopolitical risks in place now. Additionally, we believe America may be in a heightened state of a possible Terrorist attack. Any adverse actions such as these may send the stock market into another tailspin.

Risk-On

• This week we saw strong performance across 3 of the 4 key indices excluding the Diamonds (DIA), with SPY, QQQ, and IWM all taking out their December swing highs. (+)
• Volume patterns improved week over week for all 4 key indices and are confirming positive price action, with the Russel 2000 showing the strongest volume as it has 0 distribution days over the past 2 weeks. (+)
• The large majority of sectors performed well on the week with the exception of Energy (XLE (NYSE:)) -5.7% and Utilities (XLU) -1.4%, which is a strong Risk-On indication, especially while speculative sectors like Retail (XRT) +6.9% and Transportation (IYT) were the top performers. (+)
• Hard commodities including Gold Miners (GDX (NYSE:)) -6.2% and Silver (SLV) -5.1% as well as Oil (USO (NYSE:)) -7.3% and Natural Gas (UNG) -16.5% were the worst global performing assets this week, a strong Risk-On indication. (+)
• The New High / New Low ratio is in solid bullish territory and remains at its highest levels in well over a year for both the S&P 500 and . (+)
• Risk Gauges have improved to a fully Risk-On reading across the board. (+)
• High Yield Corporate Debt (HYG) finally flipped to Risk-On based on its relative performance against the rest of the market. (+)
• The 1-month vs 3-month Volatility Ratio (VIX/VXV) improved this week. (+)
• There has been a significant shift into small and mid-cap stocks (IWM and MDY), while large-cap safety plays (DIA) are stagnating. (+)
• Growth stocks (VUG) continue to outperform Value stocks (VTV) on both a short and long-term timeframe according to the Triple Play indicator. (+)
• There is strong performance across the board for the members of Mish’s Modern Family with all but 1 member (KRE) now in Bullish phases. (+)
• Gold (GLD (NYSE:)) gave up -2.5% on Friday and is in freefall until it potentially finds support at its 50-day moving average, however, it is also currently sitting at long-term support already in its ratio of relative performance against the market according to the Triple Play indicator. (+)

Neutral

• According to Real Motion and price, QQQ, SPY, and IWM appear overbought and may be subject to mean reversion which could be either downward or sideways price action. (=)
• US Natural Gas (UNG) has gotten crushed as it is -71% over the past 6 months and down -16.5% this week alone. (=)
• Market Internals according to the McClellan Oscillator continue to digest and have thus far failed to confirm the new highs in price for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. (=)
• According to the number of components above key moving averages for the SPY and IWM indices, IWM continues to build strength while SPY looks to potentially be a bit toppy. (=)
• Even with another 25 bps hike this Wednesday, Treasury Bonds (TLT) really haven’t changed since last week as they are still positioned in between the key 50 and 200-day moving averages (=)
• Foreign equities (EEM and EFA) appear to be backing off from their leadership over the US but remain in a bullish mode. (=)

Source link