Has the Rally in Gold Come to an End? Stocks Suggest So
2023.03.02 13:35
Let’s start today’s analysis with a very short-term chart (hourly candlesticks) featuring the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:) – a proxy for junior mining stocks. These miners have been the most volatile part of the precious metals sector – at least, it’s the more popular part.
As I had indicated earlier, the big-volume decline that we saw on the hourly candlestick was likely to trigger another quick rally. Indeed, we saw another sizable intraday upswing that allowed us to take profits from our quick long positions.
Why did I take profits there instead of waiting for the junior miners to move to even the first of their classic Fibonacci retracement levels?
Two reasons:
- My idea behind the previous long position was to catch the “easy” part of the rally, as given the strength of the medium-term downtrend, the biggest risk was to miss profits from the decline.
- The mid-Feb. intraday highs also served as at least somewhat important resistance.
You can see the latter even more clearly on the below chart.
GDXJ, GLD, SLV 1-Hour Chart
You can additionally see that it was not just the GDXJ ETF that touched the resistance created by the previous intraday highs. We saw the same thing in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:) (a proxy for ).
The iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:) (proxy for ) wasn’t even that strong. The white metal topped below its mid-Feb… lows.
What’s next? Well, given the critical action in the stock market that we just saw, it seems quite likely that the next move lower is already underway, or it could start very soon.
The thing is that the moved below its rising support line based on the October and December 2022 lows and also its declining support line – thus invalidating a breakout above it.
There was some back-and-forth movement after those breakdowns, and they were verified as a result. Thanks to this, we know that those moves lower were not accidental or artificial. To be precise, one can never be 100% certain on anything on the market, but the above seems very likely.
Since stocks and the precious metals market declined together and then rallied together, it seems that they can slide together in the following weeks as well.
So, all in all, it seems that the next big move lower is either already underway or about to start.
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All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported.
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