Gold Price Tug-of-War Continues – Breakout Incoming?
2025.01.14 12:45
prices continue to sway back and forth as markets weigh a strong and growing uncertainties around global trade and geopolitics. On the other end we had a strong U.S. jobs report last week which boosted the dollar, and thus weighed on Gold prices.
A softer than expected US release today helped Gold jump back toward the 2670/oz handle after hovering in the 2660’s for the majority of the European session. However the print has not really moved the needle when it comes to rate cut expectations, with markets still pricing in a more hawkish Fed in 2025.
Tomorrow we do have the US CPI release which could prove to be a catalyst for a bigger move. However this will rest on the data with a big deviation from expectations required in order for a major move to occur.
Markets are expecting a CPI headline print to come in at 2.9% and the MoM to come in at 0.4%. A significant beat of the forecast would likely see US treasury yields surge and thus drag Gold prices lower. There have however been occasions of late where Gold prices have remained resilient in the face of a stronger US Dollar and US data. Any moves after data releases have proved short-lived as we saw today following the PPI print.
Yesterday news filtered through that Donald Trump’s administration is considering gradually increasing tariffs to avoid causing a sharp rise in inflation, according to sources. I covered the implications of this on the US Dollar as well as an outlook on the US CPI release tomorrow.
Technical Analysis Gold (XAU/USD)
From a technical analysis standpoint, this analysis is a follow up from the technicals last week. Read: Gold () Price Analysis: Will Prices Continue to Soar in 2025?
Gold appears poised for another leg higher looking at basic price action on a daily timeframe.
The precious metal saw a significant pullback yesterday printing a bearish engulfing candle on the daily timeframe. Today however has not resulted in any follow through with the precious metal now on course for a bullish inside bar candle close.
This would hint at further upside tomorrow with US CPI waiting in the wings. Gold does appear to have found support at the previous swing high around the 2658 handle and this is why from a price action perspective on the daily timeframe I am inclined to believe that we could be set for another push to the upside.
The 14-period RSI also supports this as the 50 level on the RSI has held firm indicating that bullish momentum remains in play.
The question will be whether the precious metal will have enough to break above the psychological 2700/oz handle.
Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)
Dropping down to a H1 chart and as you can see below, the red block has been holding prices in a tight $16-$17 range between the 2674 and 2658 handles respectively.
A one-hour candle close outside of the red block may lead to a breakout in that direction. I would however urge caution especially if the breakout occurs during the CPI release tomorrow.
What we have seen from recent price action is that such moves have failed to gain traction of late, usually reversing in the hours after the news or data release.
Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)
Support
Resistance
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