Commodities Analysis and Opinion

Gold: Post-Bottom and Pre-Breakout Sentiments

2023.01.20 11:56

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

There are two key observations in this video.

When coming out of a cyclical bear market, a strong rebound that carries sentiment to a bullish extreme is not a sell signal. In fact, it tends to be bullish as it can confirm a new bull market. After a multi-year bear, investors are so underinvested in that market that it takes a while for bullish sentiment to be a real negative for the market.

Elsewhere, during major breakouts in in the past few decades, the sentiment was fairly bullish when these breakouts (2005, 2007, 2009, 2019) occurred.

If gold registers bullish sentiment extremes and the price has rallied to $2000 or $2050, it is not a sell signal nor precludes a breakout from happening.

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