Gold Establishing a Short-Term Bear Trend
2024.11.28 08:06
Gold
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headed higher as predicted to strong resistance at 2648/52 and shorts needed stops above 2657.
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This was tricky as Gold hit 2658 on the release of the inflation data in the US.
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I hope that you managed to hold the short position!!
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Gold crashed immediately after we hit 2658 and hit 2620.
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I think we have completed the bear flag pattern and Gold will continue lower towards 2617/15 and eventually we will probably retest the November low at 2610/05.
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A break below 2602 is a sell signal targeting 2595/94 and 2580/75, perhaps as far as 2565.
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Gains are likely to be limited again today as we transition to a medium-term bear market.
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I expect strong resistance again at 2648/52 and shorts needed stops above 2658.
Silver
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We wrote: looks likely we will retest the November low at 2675/65.
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As I write we are testing this level as predicted.
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Unfortunately, we missed the sell opportunity at 3080/90 by just 10 ticks.
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WE HAVE THE NECKLINE TO A HEAD and SHOULDERS AT 2955/45.
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This is obviously the key level for today.
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A BREAK BELOW HERE IS AN IMPORTANT MEDIUM TERM SELL SIGNAL INITIALLY TARGETING THE 200-day moving average at 2905/00.
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However, just be aware that the measured target for the move is down towards the 500-day moving average at 2670/60.
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Gains are likely to be limited after the bull trap with strong resistance at 3030/40 – here shorts need stops above 3060.
WTI Crude January Futures
Last session low and high for the December contract: 6818 – 6937.
(To compare the spread with the contract that you trade).
- made a high for the day exactly at first resistance at 6940/70
- A break higher today meets the next target and resistance at 7030/60. Shorts need stops above 7090 here again today.
- Holding resistance at 6940/70 again today retests minor support at 6850/30.
- We made a low for the day almost exactly here yesterday.
- A break below 6800 suggests further losses towards 6775/55 and perhaps as far as the November low at 6680/50.
