Global Markets Likely to Feel Trump’s Tariff Fear
2025.01.08 06:40
Incoming US President Donald Trump has pledged tariffs of as much as 10% on global imports and 60% on Chinese goods, plus a 25% import surge on Canadian and Mexican Products would upend trade flows, raise costs and draw retaliation.
However, President-elect Donald Trump says it “incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back”. Undoubtedly, the scale and scope remain to be seen, but the road ahead is bumpy for the world markets.
On the other hand, major concerns over higher yields are largely predicated upon a narrative of increasing inflation risks, including US trade protectionism, immigration policy changes, and ongoing high budget deficits that could keep the buoyant in 2025.
Mainly, the changing statements by President-elect Donald Trump what he committed before the elections look evident enough to increase uncertainty on the interest rate cuts in 2025 as most of the members say that still a lot of work is to be done on the interest rate to control inflation in 2025.
Treasury yield jumped as data for December showed signs of inflationary pressure and a jump in for November concerns about inflation, casting doubt on sooner rate cuts.
Undoubtedly, this pace of uncertainty resulted in a sudden surge in , resulted in a turbulent end by the gold in the prior year amid growing uncertainty over more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which contributed to an uptick in normal and real bond yields.
This is why most traders expect more rate cuts in 2025 but the incoming President is not in favor of higher interest rates in order to keep the US dollar stronger in coming years.
prices fell this Tuesday, continuing to hand back the gains generated last week on optimism of more policy support to revive economic growth in China, the world’s largest crude importer.
Natural gas futures are trading in the bullish territory due to the announcement of colder-than-normal weather for most parts of the United States.
Today, are trying to sustain in the bullish territory with a 4% gain, but I find that shortly a selling spree is likely to start that could push the natural gas futures back into the bearish territory if they are not able to sustain above the immediate support at 50 DMA which is at $3.425.
Undoubtedly, the upcoming inventory announcement this Thursday could lead to a sudden reversal by the natural gas futures as the withdrawal could be lesser than the expected levels.
Finally, I conclude that President-elect Donald Trump could repeat the policy change more or less to his prior policies during his last tenure from 2017 to 2021 and could keep the commodity and stock markets under extreme uncertainty this year.
Disclaimer: Readers are requested to take any position in the discussed commodities in this article at their own risk, as this analysis is based purely on observations.
