Dollar Dips as Labor Market Slowdowns: Fed Is Done Raising Rates
2023.08.04 17:41
- USD/JPY declines on expectations BOJ will let rates rise quickly
- Fed rate cut bets fully priced in by the March meeting; the implied rate stands at 5.123%
- Fed’s Bostic noted US employment gains are slowing in an orderly manner, with no need for tightening
NFP Day
The US economy should continue to gradually weaken as the labour market softens. This labour market report 187,000 jobs were added to the economy, while wage pressures heated up, and the unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%. This NFP report should support the argument that the Fed is done raising . Fed speaks post payrolls poured cold water over the hot bond market selloff. Fed’s Bostic said that the job gains are slowing orderly and that they have no reason to hike again. Fed’s Goolsbee added that they are getting positive numbers with inflation and that the job market is cooling a little bit. The risks for more Fed tightening are going away, but that could change with next Thursday’s inflation report.
Price action on the daily chart shows that the potential bearish ABCD pattern that formed a couple of days ago is tentatively respecting trendline support at the 141.50 region. If bearish momentum remains in place downside could target the 140.00 zone. With the BOJ’s minor tweak to YCC in place and steady US data that support the economy is weakening, the dollar-yen could see bearishness remain intact. On the upside, 144.00 remains a key resistance
Apple disappoints and Amazon Delivers
The last two major tech giant earnings delivered diverging stories. Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:) crushed it in the while delivering financial discipline with lower spending. The outlook impressed both e-commerce and their cloud services, while the lower headcount made this a perfect earnings report.
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:) told a than Amazon as their Outlook devices weakened, which is prompting concerns that this might be as good as it gets over the short-term for share prices. A weakening consumer and a similar fourth quarter is not inspiring investors.
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