Crude Oil Rises Cautiously
2022.04.18 15:21
Early in the week, oil is growing. Brent is currently trading at $112, but the bulls aren’t very active so far. A new wave of the US dollar strengthening is having a significant impact on the commodity’s upside potential.
Last Friday, the ICE and CME were closed due to Good Friday, so the oil contracts were not traded. The key trigger for oil prices is the global reduction of oil reserves and deliveries from Russia. Another factor supporting oil prices is the interruption in deliveries from Libya due to the shutdown of the El Feel oil field.
The lost volume is not too great but the overall conditions in the country are unstable, that’s why market players are expecting more significant risks, just in case. The latest report from Baker Hughes showed that the Oil Rig Count in the US gained two units, up to 548.
In the H4 chart, having broken 106.69 to the upside, Brent is expected to continue growing and reach 115.50. After that, the instrument may correct to return to 106.69 and then resume moving within the uptrend with the short-term target at 130.00.
From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: after breaking 0 to the upside, its signal line is growing within the histogram area, which means that it may continue moving towards new highs.
Brent 4-hour price chart.
As we can see in the H1 chart, after forming a new consolidation range around 107.00 and breaking it to the upside, Brent continues trading upwards to reach 115.40. Later, the market may start another correction towards 107.00 and then resume trading within the uptrend with the short-term target at 120.00.
From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 20 and may grow to break 50. After that, the line is expected to continue moving upwards and reach 80. 
Brent 1-hour price chart.
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