Crude Oil: Bearish Sentiment Still Yet to Hit Bottom
2024.09.11 05:11
Hedge funds and other money managers have turned the most bearish on crude ever since the CFTC started to publish information on market positioning, with and net longs totaling a mere 139,242 lots in the week ended September 3. As the oil market gathered in Singapore this week for the annual Appec conference, Trafigura head of oil trading Ben Luckock said oil would dip into the 60s soon, depressed by weakening demand in China.
US investment Citi lowered its 2025 price forecast to a mere 60 per barrel, prompting a general downward revision of outlooks as Morgan Stanley and Bank of America both slashed its expectations to $75 per barrel. Crude oil futures could potentially flip into contango over the upcoming period as the ICE Brent 36-month spread between the November 2024 and November 2027 contracts shrank to a mere $2 per barrel, down from $9 per barrel a month ago.
Market Movers
– A blaze at Mexico’s largest refinery, the 330,000 b/d Salina Cruz refinery operated by national oil company Pemex, killed two workers as a fire broke out after a truck bumped into refinery waste that surfaced after rain overflowed the sewers.
– Canada’s pipeline operator Pembina Pipeline (NYSE:)agreed to buy infrastructure assets in Alberta’s Montney basin from oil producer Veren for $300 million, in yet another instance of M&A in the midstream segment.
– US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:) has reportedly renounced on the idea of buying half of Galp Energia’s (ELI:) stake in the allegedly huge Mopane offshore discovery in Namibia, potentially wielding 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Not even a forming hurricane in the US Gulf of Mexico could halt the decline in oil prices, with ICE Brent dipping below $70 per barrel and marking the lowest level it has been since late 2021. Defying OPEC+’s postponement of output increases and the Libyan oil embargo, oil prices continue to edge lower on fears of oversupply and an ever-weakening Chinese outlook.
OPEC Lowers Its Demand Growth Outlook. Amid plunging oil prices, OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in both 2024 and 2025, revising this year’s outlook to a still very ambitious 2.03 million b/d whilst cutting next year’s number marginally lower to 1.74 million b/d.
Storm Francine Triggers Gulf Evacuations. UK-based energy major Shell has paused drilling operations at its Perdido and Whale offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Francine, the sixth named storm of the 2024 hurricane season, is headed towards Texas.
New Regulations Jeopardize US Gulf Production. The American Petroleum Institute warned the US Department of Commerce that if it does not act quickly to publish a new assessment on how to protect endangered species in the Gulf of Mexico, all offshore oil and gas operations could be disrupted.
Central Europe Exhales Amid New Deal on Ukraine Transit. Hungary’s oil company MOL said it reached a deal to ensure the continued supply of Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline that transits Ukraine, changing the delivery point from its own border to the Belarus-Ukraine border.
Biden Administration Expedites SPR Repurchases. Having purchased 2.5 million barrels of US crude last month for delivery to Bryan Mound in January-March, the US Energy Department bought another 3.4 million barrels to be delivered in the same months at the same time, boosting the pace of SPR replenishment.
Russia’s Grey Tankers Ignore Danish Pilots. Oil tankers carrying Russian oil as part of its so-called shadow fleet are increasingly refusing to use the service of Danish pilots as they navigate their ships through the Danish straits, increasing the risks of oil spills amid strong currents and varying depths.
India Doubles Down on Coal Plants. India’s state-owned coal producer Coal India is planning to invest $8 billion to build coal-fired power plants next to its mines, adding at least 4.7 GW of generation over the next six years as part of a giant 88 GW capacity buildout.
Italy Revisits Its Nuclear Strategy. Italy is looking to reverse its ban on nuclear power production and is mulling the creation of a new company to build smaller modular nuclear reactors, to be led by the state power market champion Enel (BIT:), expecting to pass it in Parliament next year.
UAE Signs Another Major LNG Term Deal. ADNOC, the national oil company of the UAE, has agreed to a 15-year term deal with India’s leading oil firm IOC to supply up to 1 million metric tonnes of LNG per year from 2028, the seventh term contract that it allocated to future buyers.
China Launches Anti-Dumping Probe into Canola. Chinese authorities have announced the launch of a one-year anti-dumping investigation into the imports of canola from Canada, with rapeseed becoming Beijing’s tit-for-tat response to Ottawa’s 100% on Chinese-made EVs and other products.
Qatar Names Flagship LNG Carrier After Rex Tillerson. Qatar’s national energy company QatarEnergy has unveiled its first LNG carrier to be built by the Chinese Hudong-Zhonghua shipyard for its upcoming North Field expansion, naming it after former Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson.
Ecopetrol Implodes on CrownRock Deal Fallout. Two independent directors have resigned from the board of Colombian oil producer Ecopetrol (NYSE:), dissatisfied with the company’s decision not to take a 30% stake in CrownRock Energy as part of Occidental’s (NYSE:) $12 billion takeover.
India Launches New LNG Truck Policy. Mirroring China’s large-scale conversion of diesel trucks to LNG, India announced a draft scheme to convert one-third of its existing heavy-duty vehicle fleet over the next five years, however, the lack of a nationwide retail network and high costs could derail that vision.
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