Financial market overview

China’s Fork in the Road

2023.02.10 03:41

Stephen Innes

While most agree the overall economic growth will recover in China this year, there appears to be a lack of conviction on the magnitude of that rebound.

Many local traders now think this year’s household consumption recovery could be slower than expected, given the scarring effects of property deleveraging and the legacy of three years of Covid controls.

Besides consumption and property, regional investors are not overly optimistic as ‘ key concerns include the risk of Covid reinfections and whether we could see another big wave of infections in the next few months which might weigh on activity growth.

US-China relations remain a popular conversational topic and provide a safe-haven bid for the US dollar in Asia. From a bellwether perspective, it suggests investors are hedging bets against the Biden administration’s anti-China plays accelerating this year.

In comparison, Wall Street still holds a more optimistic view on consumption recovery in China, potentially based on western economies’ experiences whereby household consumption boomed after reopening.

But we are at a fork in the road right now regarding whether China will follow a western reopening game plan or a more Asia-styled cautious reopening approach. Remember that the Chinese, unlike the US and other western countries, are fundamentally net savers, not net consumers.

Source link

Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Back to top button
bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 82,074.99 1.66%
ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) $ 1,893.43 0.90%
tether
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00 0.00%
xrp
XRP (XRP) $ 2.29 2.52%
bnb
BNB (BNB) $ 581.02 0.54%
solana
Solana (SOL) $ 124.76 0.36%
usd-coin
USDC (USDC) $ 1.00 0.01%
cardano
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.709859 1.46%
dogecoin
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.168219 0.86%
tron
TRON (TRX) $ 0.223799 0.51%
staked-ether
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 1,889.86 0.76%
pi-network
Pi Network (PI) $ 1.68 1.67%
wrapped-bitcoin
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 81,806.92 1.75%
leo-token
LEO Token (LEO) $ 9.72 0.34%
chainlink
Chainlink (LINK) $ 13.33 0.79%
stellar
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.272438 2.44%
usds
USDS (USDS) $ 1.00 0.05%
wrapped-steth
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 2,260.46 1.19%
hedera-hashgraph
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.188737 3.49%
avalanche-2
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 18.61 0.90%
shiba-inu
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000013 2.63%
the-open-network
Toncoin (TON) $ 2.80 3.07%
sui
Sui (SUI) $ 2.18 3.28%
litecoin
Litecoin (LTC) $ 88.80 1.06%
bitcoin-cash
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 326.88 3.87%
mantra-dao
MANTRA (OM) $ 6.24 3.56%
polkadot
Polkadot (DOT) $ 4.03 1.63%
ethena-usde
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 1.00 0.01%
weth
WETH (WETH) $ 1,894.47 0.93%
binance-bridged-usdt-bnb-smart-chain
Binance Bridged USDT (BNB Smart Chain) (BSC-USD) $ 0.999741 0.03%
bitget-token
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 4.22 0.65%
hyperliquid
Hyperliquid (HYPE) $ 13.32 4.32%
whitebit
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 28.14 1.46%
wrapped-eeth
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 2,010.89 0.93%
monero
Monero (XMR) $ 207.85 0.25%
uniswap
Uniswap (UNI) $ 5.88 0.68%
susds
sUSDS (SUSDS) $ 1.04 0.05%
near
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 2.63 2.49%
dai
Dai (DAI) $ 0.99982 0.01%
aptos
Aptos (APT) $ 5.13 0.05%
pepe
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000007 1.44%
ethereum-classic
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 18.17 2.38%
ondo-finance
Ondo (ONDO) $ 0.837382 1.87%
internet-computer
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 5.51 0.06%
okb
OKB (OKB) $ 41.93 0.76%
gatechain-token
Gate (GT) $ 20.51 1.72%
coinbase-wrapped-btc
Coinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) $ 82,093.00 1.54%
aave
Aave (AAVE) $ 163.69 5.00%
mantle
Mantle (MNT) $ 0.725955 2.96%
official-trump
Official Trump (TRUMP) $ 11.62 7.62%