Chart Of The Day: The Case For Rising Iron Ore Prices As Chinese Demand Shrinks

04/25/2022

2 minutes read

2022.04.25 13:35

After 19 COVID deaths were reported Sunday, and the number of fatalities in China has continued to rise, with 39 deaths reported yesterday in the country’s largest city, Shanghai, the Chinese government is tightening its already harsh grip on social restrictions, despite weeks of lockdowns already in effect.

Indeed, this morning, fears are escalating as mass coronavirus testing has begun in Beijing, prompting worries that the country’s capitol city will be the next location to be locked down, following in the footsteps of its financial hub, Shanghai, which has been almost hermetically sealed since the beginning of April.

Among the many other worries pressuring markets on Monday, this added headwind has been weighing especially heavily on commodity markets, as the prospect of sharply lower demand for metals and oil from the world’s second largest economy appears to be in the cards.

Iron ore trading in China has been particularly volatile today, on concerns of that falling demand from the world’s leading iron ore importer. Though the price has been falling today, the technical picture indicates there’s more upside ahead.

Chart Of The Day: The Case For Rising Iron Ore Prices As Chinese Demand Shrinks Iron Ore Daily

Iron ore futures in China have been trading within a pennant, bullish following the last sharp advance. However, the pattern is complete only upon an upside breakout, signaling a resumption of the underlying uptrend.

Note, the pattern developed precisely at the top of a rising channel since the November trough, where selling had been outpacing demand. However, the pennant is a market device, a slingshot to help bulls extend the faster rising channel (green). This price becomes the battleground between the supply of the rising yellow channel and the demand of the accelerating green channel.

The 100 DMA bounced off the bottom of the original rising channel, and the 50 DMA rushing in to support the newer, more acute rising channel, have crossed the 200 DMA, triggering a Golden Cross.

Trading Strategies

should wait for an upside breakout of the pennant, which should close above 1000, with the price remaining above 960 for at least three sessions, preferably including a weekend. Then, they’d wait for a return move to retest the pattern’s integrity before risking an extended position.

would wait for the same upside penetration, with a close above 980, with the price remaining above 960 for at least two sessions. They may also wait for a pullback for a better entry, if not confirmation of support.

could buy at will, providing they do so according to a plan that meets their budget, timing, and temperament. Here is an example of a generic plan:

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