Stock Markets Analysis and Opinion

Chart Of The Day: Navigating Amazon’s Conflicting Trends

2022.09.15 08:46


I have been bearish on Amazon (NASDAQ:) since despite its solid fundamentals because of the technicals.

I repeated that call in , and then on I braved a short-term bullish call, despite being bearish on markets. The price bounced, reaching my trading sample’s target and 77.2% of the implied short-term bottom’s $150 target.

On , I resumed my bearish call. The price has dropped 8.9% since. Where to from here?

Fundamentals

Amazon sellers are braced for a pullback in consumer spending amid the economic downturn and are expecting a ‘scary’ holiday season. However, sales growth is already slowing down, prompting Amazon to downsize.

Technicals

Let’s examine the different term trends.

AMZN Daily

The price is uptrending, so bullish, but before you rush to buy Amazon shares, let’s take a step back and look at the large picture.

AMZN Weekly

In the weekly chart, we realize that the larger trend is falling, as the price completed an H&S top. The price closed below the 200-week moving average (WMA) and the 50 WMA, crossing below the falling (more bearish) 100 WMA. Moreover, despite the 44.5% rebound, these MAs keep pointing down. So, bearish, but before you rush to short Amazon, let’s take another step back for an even larger picture.

AMZN Monthly

Only now, with a bird’s-eye view of the monthly chart, can we appreciate the trend complexity and how different terms interact with each other. Note how the price has respected the long-term uptrend line since January 2015, demonstrating that buyers controlled the macro trend.

So, bullish? OK, before you rush to do anything, you need to determine what kind of trader you are. Only then can you make an educated bet.

Trading Strategies

Conservative traders should wait for the different term trends to synchronize, buying only if the long-term uptrend since the 2015 bottom breaks the medium-term downtrend.

Moderate traders would wait for the rising short-term trend since June’s bottom to realign with the falling medium-term trend, to short.

Aggressive traders could buy the short-term trend, taking advantage of the positive risk-reward ratio between the short-term rising channel support and the medium-term falling channel’s resistance.

Here is an aggressive long trading sample because it is timely while more cautious traders wait for confirmations.

  • Entry: $127
  • Stop-Loss: $122
  • Risk: $5
  • Target: $142
  • Reward: $15
  • Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3

Note: I am not in the fortune-telling business. I am an analyst. This article is my interpretation, based on the principles of technical analysis. Like any other discipline, the study is statistically based. The follow-through is what happens most of the time. There is no way of knowing whether it will happen this time. Therefore, have a coherent plan that addresses your timing, budget, and temperament. If you don’t know how to do that, I provided you with a generic sample above for practice. Close your eyes and imagine you lost your trade. If you can’t handle that possibility, don’t trade.



Source link

Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Back to top button
bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 65,072.43 0.20%
ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) $ 3,523.40 1.09%
tether
Tether (USDT) $ 0.999614 0.08%
bnb
BNB (BNB) $ 592.47 1.49%
solana
Solana (SOL) $ 134.16 0.60%
staked-ether
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 3,521.21 1.06%
usd-coin
USDC (USDC) $ 1.00 0.10%
xrp
XRP (XRP) $ 0.490846 0.80%
dogecoin
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.124499 1.33%
the-open-network
Toncoin (TON) $ 7.14 2.78%
cardano
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.386192 0.20%
avalanche-2
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 27.62 2.07%
shiba-inu
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000018 0.31%
tron
TRON (TRX) $ 0.116822 0.48%
wrapped-bitcoin
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 65,004.42 0.08%
chainlink
Chainlink (LINK) $ 14.39 0.11%
polkadot
Polkadot (DOT) $ 5.68 2.57%
bitcoin-cash
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 391.64 1.29%
uniswap
Uniswap (UNI) $ 10.07 0.37%
near
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 5.31 6.25%
wrapped-eeth
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 3,660.70 1.15%
litecoin
Litecoin (LTC) $ 74.74 0.58%
matic-network
Polygon (MATIC) $ 0.579876 0.28%
leo-token
LEO Token (LEO) $ 5.69 0.48%
dai
Dai (DAI) $ 0.998976 0.01%
pepe
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000011 3.61%
fetch-ai
Fetch.ai (FET) $ 1.61 9.18%
internet-computer
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 8.37 0.51%
ethena-usde
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 1.00 0.17%
ethereum-classic
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 24.13 0.48%
renzo-restaked-eth
Renzo Restaked ETH (EZETH) $ 3,528.61 0.89%
kaspa
Kaspa (KAS) $ 0.144678 0.08%
aptos
Aptos (APT) $ 6.95 0.15%
monero
Monero (XMR) $ 168.07 0.84%
render-token
Render (RNDR) $ 7.72 0.41%
hedera-hashgraph
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.080758 0.18%
stellar
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.094407 1.12%
cosmos
Cosmos Hub (ATOM) $ 6.90 0.51%
mantle
Mantle (MNT) $ 0.822431 0.65%
arbitrum
Arbitrum (ARB) $ 0.806477 1.72%
okb
OKB (OKB) $ 42.94 0.63%
crypto-com-chain
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.094214 0.09%
filecoin
Filecoin (FIL) $ 4.44 0.61%
blockstack
Stacks (STX) $ 1.67 0.92%
first-digital-usd
First Digital USD (FDUSD) $ 0.999863 0.15%
immutable-x
Immutable (IMX) $ 1.57 1.86%
maker
Maker (MKR) $ 2,427.64 2.03%
sui
Sui (SUI) $ 0.906968 5.42%
vechain
VeChain (VET) $ 0.026869 1.74%
the-graph
The Graph (GRT) $ 0.225668 2.42%