Years to recover and more than 22 000 dead in the earthquake in Turkey and Syria
2023.02.11 09:10
By Tiffany Smith
Budrigannews.com – The number of dead in Turkey and Syria five days after a massive 7.8-magnitude earthquake is staggering.
The stark reality of widespread destruction in a region that straddles two very different nations has been conveyed through drone footage and satellite imagery.
The catastrophe has a huge scope. Caroline Holt, director of disasters, climate, and crises at the International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC), stated, “We have done a little bit of mapping of the size of the affected area.” It is as big as France.
According to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, “we haven’t yet seen the full extent of the damage and of the humanitarian crisis unfolding before our eyes,” the natural disaster could affect up to 23 million people, according to estimates from the World Health Organization.
Long-term reconstruction will be the focus of attention after the search efforts are complete. Turkey has rebuilt after earthquakes in the past. However, how much can be gleaned from this past, and will these lessons be put into practice? Additionally, will efforts be replicated across the border?
What happened again in Turkey
On Friday, the death toll exceeded the grim figure of 22,000. As it continues to rise, so do feelings of resentment and anger. Turkey has a history of earthquakes, and many people believe that the government did not adequately prepare for another devastating event.
During President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Wednesday and Thursday tour of the Kahramanmaras region, which is close to the deadly earthquake’s epicenter, this annoyance persisted. Before emphasizing that it is “not possible to be prepared for such a disaster,” Erdogan defended his government’s response by acknowledging its “shortcomings.” Additionally, he stated that the government’s goal was to rebuild “in one year,” despite the fact that experts informed that this could take much longer.
Although major earthquakes of this magnitude are uncommon, many people in Turkey are still haunted by the Izmit earthquake of 1999 in the Marmara region.
When the 7.6-magnitude earthquake struck Turkey two decades ago, economist Ajay Chhibber was World Bank director for Turkey. He told that “it’s like a bad movie [that] has come back again.” That early-morning tremor was similar to the one this week, but it occurred in the country’s northwest, a densely populated region closer to Istanbul. According to him, it lasted about 45 seconds, resulting in the deaths of over 17,000 people and the estimated displacement of 500,000.
Chhibber stated that he “hadn’t seen that much devastation before” when he flew into the region immediately following the storm. He recalled being accompanied by the Japanese and German ambassadors at the time, who told him, “This looks to us like World War II.” while they were traveling in.
In 1999, Chhibber saw apocalyptic scenes of buildings “flattened like pancakes.” He recalled seeing “submarines that were tossed up out of the water, lying 300, 400 feet up a mountain” in the city of Golcuk, which served as a naval base.
Submarines could be seen sitting there. It was beyond belief. He added, “And what I’m seeing now is just a redo.”
Given that the Turkish president also stated that more than 6,000 buildings had collapsed, some may question whether the current goal of a year for reconstruction is achievable. Chhibber, on the other hand, remarked, “Turkey is capable of moving very, very quickly – if they can get their act together on this.”
In the wake of the disaster in 1999, Chhibber assisted in the implementation of a four-part recovery plan that provided residents with cash, assisted in the reconstruction of infrastructure and housing, established an insurance system, and developed an organizational system that cascaded down to the community for overall coordination efforts.
Chhibber stated, “Compared to disasters all over the world, it was one of the most rapid reconstructions and recoveries I ever saw.” He went on to say that most of the work was done in two years.
Ismail Baris, a professor of social work at Istanbul’s Uskudar University who was also the former mayor of Golcuk at the time of the earthquake, stated that “in addition to the collapsed private and public buildings, the city’s water transport pipes, water supply network, sewage system [and] storm water system were completely destroyed” in addition to destroying 80 percent of the city’s roads. He added that it took four years to completely rebuild the city.
However, the Turkish army, which was brought in after numerous local administrations collapsed, assisted with much of the reconstruction at the time. According to Chhibber, this made it possible to quickly clear the rubble.
Chhibber responded, “But Izmit is in the heart of Turkey.” Since there are a lot of Kurds living in the earthquake-hit areas, sending in the army could cause problems.
Ilan Kelman, a University College London professor of disasters and health, stated, “This is a huge challenge.” Kelman stated that while the army possesses the personnel and resources necessary, “they also have the unfortunate history of frequently abusing their power.”
He stated, “The Kurds in that region and many Turks in that region, understandably, would be very hesitant to have the army in the streets even more than they have been.” He added, “The Kurds in that region.”
According to experts, there must also be an examination of what went wrong. After 1999, the country implemented strict construction regulations that made it necessary for more recent buildings to be able to withstand earthquakes. However, many of the apartment buildings in the earthquake zone appeared to be brand-new and had not yet collapsed.
“Unfortunately over the past two decades, this has remained mostly on paper,” Sinan Ulgen, a Turkish former diplomat who currently serves as the chair of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy in Istanbul, stated.
“A special fund was established with the proceeds from tax increases for the purpose of rebuilding cities to be more resilient to these kinds of natural disasters. Some of that money was wasted and didn’t go where it should have. And then there is the lack of enforcement, which is really the biggest problem,” Ulgen told Channel 4 in the United Kingdom. It is true that the regulations have been enhanced, but actually enforcing those regulations is the real challenge. Turkey really needs to improve its game there.
Chhibber also said that Turkey hadn’t learned enough from its mistakes and wondered why building codes weren’t being followed. He stated that the Turkish government frequently granted so-called “construction amnesties,” which were essentially legal exemptions that permitted projects without the necessary safety requirements in exchange for a fee. In 2018, the most recent amnesty was passed.
Building amnesties, according to him, was “a huge issue.”
They simply proceed to construct the building. They violate the rules. Because they fund their political parties, they are aware that some politicians will eventually grant them amnesty. That is a significant issue.
According to Turkish state media Anadolu, Turkey’s justice minister stated on Friday that investigations into builders in earthquake regions had begun. According to Bekir Bozda, “whoever has faults, negligence, or deficiency will be brought to justice and held accountable before the law” as a result.
Syria’s problems
Rebuilding efforts will be even more complicated in Syria, across the border. The World Food Programme has described the situation in the northwest of the country as a “catastrophe on top of catastrophe,” and Guterres issued a warning on Thursday that Syrians face “nightmares on top of nightmares.”
Caroline Holt, the director of disasters, climate, and crises at the IFRC, stated, “We have the perfect humanitarian storm in Syria.”
Due to the civil war that has ravaged the nation since 2011, the United Nations estimates that more than four million people were already relying on humanitarian assistance in the most affected regions of rebel-controlled Syria. Numerous traumatized residents initially questioned whether they were being awoken by the sound of warplanes when the earthquake struck.
According to Holt’s statement, “your ability to withstand – especially in winter – the harsh conditions that you’re facing [is diminished] after 12 years of constant pain, suffering, and living in a vulnerable context].”
On Tuesday, February 7, 2023, a child receives treatment in an incubator at a children’s hospital in the town of Afrin, Aleppo province, Syria, for a baby girl who was born beneath the rubble of an earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria.
Relatives and a doctor claim that relatives and a doctor discovered the crying infant whose mother gave birth while buried beneath the rubble of a five-story apartment building that was destroyed by the devastating earthquake this week. A baby was reportedly rescued from the rubble of an earthquake in Syria. Political divides run deep in Syria.
The Assad regime controls some of the most affected areas, while Kurdish rebels, Sunni Islamist fighters, opposition forces backed by Turkey and the US also control other areas. The logistical tangles are caused by these political divides. Recovery efforts will be hampered if they are negotiated.
Kelman stated, “The conflict – or conflicts – are significantly worse in that area of Syria than in that area of Turkey.”
“They do have a comparatively strong government and comparatively strong military in comparison to Syria, which is at war,” he added, despite Turkey’s own political issues.
Kelman said that Turkey also has more “pre-earthquake resources.” Although neither is particularly wealthy, Turkey at least has the baseline of not having been involved in a major conflict that has divided the country for 12 years. They have not been put in isolation by sanctions.
Humanitarian aid must navigate geopolitical obstacles imposed by the sanctions. The Assad regime insists that the capital, Damascus, receive all aid to the country, including aid for areas outside its control. A statement said that the Syrian government gave its blessing on Friday to send aid into rebel-held territory in the northwest, but it didn’t say when it would arrive.
However, the regime has long diverted aid meant for rebel-held areas. As a result, aid workers working to clean up the rubble rely on resources sent through a single road, the Bab al-Hawa crossing, which is the only route for humanitarian aid between Turkey and Syria.
According to Mohammad Hammoud, the Norwegian Red Cross manager for Syria, “most of the work is done by hand.” After supplies from Damascus were cut off, Hammoud told CNN that Syria does not have the machinery Turkey has, and that the little machinery it does have does not have fuel to run on. He stated, “Manpower is primarily our reliance.”
Syria’s recovery is likely to move slowly as a result of these differences. Its lack of coordination may leave basic inquiries unanswered for some time.
The first step is to remove the rubble and debris. How are you going to use that? If you choose to pave roads with it, it can either become an environmental hazard or an asset,” Holt stated.
The director of the IFRC predicts that the majority of the recovery work in Turkey will be completed within two to three years. However, she stated that “we’re looking at a frame of five to ten years just to get recovery underway” in Syria.
In The Future
Disasters like this one wreak havoc, but they also present opportunities to stop them from happening again. According to Chhibber, every natural disaster has a man-made component.
Unavoidable are earthquakes; They have no effect. Chhibber claimed that after the 1999 earthquake in Izmit, he observed an illustration of this point. One building would be completely straight up, and the next building would be flat as a pancake. The same sights can now be found in Gaziantep, Turkey.
This is the result of choices for Chhibber. There is an earthquake, but it doesn’t have to be a catastrophe of this magnitude unless it’s caused by humans. Additionally, the absence of a proper building code enforced contributes to the man-made component. These structures shouldn’t have been able to fall so quickly. He stated, “Some of them were constructed just a year or two ago.”
Kelman also emphasized that disasters present an opportunity to alter procedures. He hopes that the earthquake will spur “disaster diplomacy,” in which the question of “whether or not dealing with disasters in any way can end conflict and create peace” is addressed.
According to Kelman, “We do have examples where people have taken the opportunity to say there has been a disaster, and we want to help people, so let’s try to reconstruct in a way that we are supporting peace.”
“At this time, I do not see either government responding in that manner, and neither does the world.”
