$13.6B in Bitcoin options expire Friday — Can bulls push BTC price to $100K?
2024.11.28 09:08
Bitcoin is set for its largest monthly options expiry of 2024, with a total exposure of $13.6 billion.
Less than 2% of BTC put options target $100K or higher
This event provides bulls with a pivotal opportunity to push Bitcoin’s (BTC) price above $100,000, making it crucial to assess the impact of call (buy) and put (sell) options set to expire on Nov. 29.
The S&P 500 has struggled to maintain levels above 6,000 over the past three weeks, signaling growing investor caution. This shift in sentiment is reflected in the United States five-year Treasury yield, which has declined from 4.35% on Nov. 15 to the current 4.12%.
Investors increasingly prioritize government bonds’ relative safety, even at lower returns.
S&P 500 futures (blue) vs. US 5-year Treasury yield (magenta). Source: TradingView/Cointelegraph
Periods of macroeconomic uncertainty, often driven by fears of an economic slowdown, typically trigger a flight to quality, prompting investors to exit riskier assets.
Still, the 5% rebound from Bitcoin’s $90,775 low on Nov. 26 suggests that confidence remains strong amid 34% gains over the last 30 days.
In a research note dated Nov. 27, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics said that US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation could rise above 3% if President-elect Donald Trump implements import tariffs, according to Yahoo Finance. Separately, Barclays analysts remarked:
“Temporary and uncertain tariffs of this nature create natural incentives to delay investments.”
From a broader perspective, Bitcoin call (buy) options for Nov. 29 hold an aggregate notional value of $7.4 billion on Deribit, CME, OKX, Binance and Bybit, surpassing the $6.2 billion in open interest for put (sell) options by 19%. This disparity is narrower than typical trends, as crypto traders often lean bullish.
Deribit Bitcoin Nov. 29 options open interest, BTC. Source: Deribit
Notably, only 20% of call options have strike prices at or above $100,000, representing $4.25 billion in notional value for the November expiry.
Related: Buying Bitcoin in 2013 was like buying ‘gold in 1,000 BC’ — Pantera CEO
In contrast, less than 2% of put options target $100,000 or higher, effectively rendering most of them worthless and reducing their notional value to about $80 million.
Bitcoin call (buy) options favor bulls
Below are the four most probable scenarios for the Deribit exchange based on current price trends. The availability of call and put options for the Nov. 28 expiration will depend on Bitcoin’s settlement price at 8:00 am UTC.
This analysis assumes that call options are primarily used for bullish positions, while put options reflect neutral-to-bearish strategies. Still, it is crucial to note that this is a simplified approach and does not account for more advanced or complex trading strategies.
- Between $86,000 and $90,000: The net outcome favors the call (buy) options by $1.65 billion.
- Between $90,000 and $94,000: The net outcome favors the call (buy) options by $2.6 billion.
- Between $94,000 and $98,000: The net outcome favors the call (buy) options by $3.55 billion.
- Between $98,000 and $102,000: The net result favors the call (buy) options by $4.58 billion.
So, the bears face substantial pressure to drive Bitcoin’s price below $90,000 before the November options expiry to prevent call options from prevailing.
However, Bitcoin’s resilience amid inflation concerns suggests that prices could reach $100,000 or higher soon after these BTC options expire.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
