Cryptocurrency Opinion and Analysis

Bitcoin price uptrend ‘intact’ with hodlers 120% in profit — Research

2024.06.19 03:26

Bitcoin is still “largely profitable” despite months of sideways BTC price action, says new research.

In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” published on June 18, analytics firm Glassnode dispelled myths over investors’ unrealized losses.

BTC price analysis flags “investor boredom and apathy”

Bitcoin (BTC) may be trading within a rigid corridor, but the majority of hodlers are not seeing return on investment evaporate as a result.

Summarizing current BTC price behavior as “establishing equilibrium,” Glassnode pointed to multiple on-chain metrics showing Bitcoin in a period of consolidation — not capitulation.

“Sideways price movement tends to manifest as investor boredom and apathy, which appears to be the dominant response across all Bitcoin markets,” it wrote.

“BTC prices are consolidating within a well-established trade range. Investors remain in a generally favourable position, with over 87% of the circulating supply held in profit, with a cost basis below the spot price.”

Bitcoin price uptrend 'intact' with hodlers 120% in profit — ResearchBitcoin % supply in profit (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

Using the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric, researchers showed that on aggregate, a given amount of BTC is still up by more than two times, or 120%, versus its purchase price in U.S. dollar terms. The one-year average value of MVRV is currently 86%.

“The MVRV Ratio remains above its yearly baseline, suggesting that the macro uptrend remains intact,” accompanying commentary added.

Bitcoin price uptrend 'intact' with hodlers 120% in profit — ResearchBitcoin MVRV momentum (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin speculators refuse to capitulate

The newsletter’s mood contrasts with some of the more panicked reactions to this week’s BTC price drop.

Related: Bitcoin ‘Banana Zone’ is next if these 3 indicators play out

As Cointelegraph continues to report, traders are wary of support trendlines disintegrating and multi-month lows reappearing as a result.

Among the most important lines in the sand now on the radar is the aggregate purchase price for Bitcoin’s speculative investor base, the so-called short-term holders (STHs).

The latest data from statistics resource Look Into Bitcoin puts the STH cost basis at $64,000.

Bitcoin price uptrend 'intact' with hodlers 120% in profit — ResearchBitcoin STH realized price. Source: Look Into Bitcoin

Despite seeing unrealized gains fading, STH entities themselves are not preparing for a mass sell-off at current prices, Glassnode notes.

“At present, Short-Term Holders are sending around +17.4k BTC/day to exchanges,” it calculated.

“However, this is markedly lower than the peak of +55k BTC/day recorded as the market hit the $73k ATH in March, where speculation levels were becoming excessive.”

Bitcoin price uptrend 'intact' with hodlers 120% in profit — ResearchBitcoin exchange inflows (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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