Forex analytics and overview

Yen Tracking Yield Spreads again?

2023.05.31 04:30

Ashraf Laidi

During yesterday’s sleepy markets, I highlighted the rally in bund futures (rising prices, falling yields) may signal similar price action at the subsequent session, when US bond yields/prices return from Memorial Day Weekend. Today’s bond price action did not disappoint, as the homogenous asset class moved in concert, delivering gap ups in prices and falling yields.

This was a desperately needed development for yen bulls (particularly shorts). Interpret what you wish from the chart below as to which is the dependent and independent variable ( or yield spread). Who leads whom? Shorting USDJPY has been the “pain trade” for our WhatsApp Broadcast Group as we await Wednesday’s debt ceiling vote and the JOLTs survey. Hanging in there.

USD/JPY-Yields Spread ChartUSD/JPY-Yields Spread Chart

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