Will rate cuts make Asian small caps more attractive? Bernstein weighs in

Investing.com– The prospect of lower interest rates in the coming months presents a favorable environment for small-cap stocks in Asia, Bernstein wrote in a note, although some risks to this trend still remained in play.

Bernstein said Japan and some economies in the ASEAN region showed positive growth trends, reflecting a “good set-up” to gain small or mid-cap exposure. 

Large cap stocks had largely dominated market gains seen over the past year in the U.S. and Asia, Bernstein noted. But the brokerage noted that even amid increasing expectations of lower interest rates, there were no signs of a broader rotation into small-cap stocks in recent months.

Bernstein argued that there was no such broader shift into small caps across Asia, and that regional markets were displaying idiosyncratic performances with regards to this trend. 

Japan is an outlier, where the Bank of Japan is expected to begin raising interest rates this year amid improving local economic conditions. This is expected to benefit small and mid-cap stocks with high exposure to domestic demand, Bernstein said.

India is the only Asian market where small-caps saw a relatively healthy amount of positioning, with near-term earnings remaining supportive of this trend, Bernstein said.

But the brokerage recommended more selectivity for Indian small and mid-caps and increased exposure towards large-caps, citing a wide gulf in valuations and overcrowding in investor positioning. 

Barring Australia, South Korea and parts of the ASEAN region, small caps have generally performed better than their bigger peers over a long period of time, Bernstein said. 

On an earnings front, Bernstein said it still saw earnings support for large caps over small-caps for most of the region, barring China and ASEAN. 

But on a global scale, the brokerage still expects large-cap leadership will continue until there are more signs of macro and earnings support for smaller stocks.