Will $100K Bitcoin price trigger a big correction?
2024.11.21 09:22
Bitcoin (BTC) crossed above $98,000 for the first time in history following reports that President-elect Donald Trump’s team is considering the establishment of a dedicated White House position to oversee cryptocurrency policy.
On Nov. 21, BTC’s price surged by over 4.50% to a new all-time high of $98,367 (data from Bitstamp). Its gains prompted the crypto market capitalization to rise 3.65% to reach the $3.17 trillion milestone.
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
The “Trump Trade” euphoria could have Bitcoin reach its long-anticipated $100,000 price target by 2024’s end, with crypto betting platform Polymarket reporting a 92% bets in favor of the six-figure record high.
Meanwhile, the calls for even higher Bitcoin prices in 2025 are growing.
BTC price could hit $200,000 by 2025: Bernstein Research
Analysts at Bernstein predicted in their October “Black Book“ that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Their bullish prediction stems from rising institutional demand, positive regulatory shifts, and pro-crypto appointments by Donald Trump.
Source: X
Another driver for Bitcoin’s potential growth is the proposed establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve.
Notably, Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced a draft bill advocating for the acquisition of up to 5% of Bitcoin’s total supply over the next five years, a move that could represent more than $100 billion worth of investments.
Additionally, Bernstein points to surging demand from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and ambitious purchasing strategies from companies like MicroStrategy, which plans to raise $42 billion for Bitcoin acquisitions over the next three years.
Spot Bitcoin ETF cumulative flows. Source: Farside Investors
Bitcoin’s regression model predicts $150,000 top this bull cycle
Bitcoin could peak out at around $150,000 in 2025, based on its post-halving performance and historical patterns identified by the Logarithmic Regression Model.
BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: Florian Kössler
Following previous halvings, Bitcoin rallied 8,000% after the 2012 halving, 2,900% after the 2016 halving, and 560% after the 2020 halving.
If a similar trajectory plays out, a rally of 300–400% from the April 2024 halving aligns perfectly with the $150,000 upper band of the regression model.
With a pro-crypto administration potentially introducing regulatory clarity and institutions ramping up adoption, Bitcoin appears ready to continue its historical pattern in 2025.
2021 Bitcoin chart fractal hints at correction after $100K
On the more cautious note, Bitcoin appears to be forming a bearish divergence similar to its price action in 2021, raising concerns that its current rally may peak at $100,000 before a significant correction ensues.
In 2021, Bitcoin peaked at $69,000, while its RSI displayed a bearish divergence—higher prices paired with declining RSI.
This divergence preceded a sharp 77% drop in Bitcoin’s price, touching its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) during the decline.
BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
A similar setup could be emerging now, with Bitcoin trading near $97,500 and RSI showing signs of weakening momentum.
Related: $100K Bitcoin next? No euphoria ‘encouraging’ as BTC price breaks new highs
If history repeats, Bitcoin’s current bull cycle could top out around the psychologically significant $100,000 level, followed by a corrective move. An interim target for such a pullback would be the 50-week EMA at around $60,000, suggesting a potential correction of over 40% in 2025.
Interestingly, the $60,000 level aligns with a key ascending trendline that has acted as support throughout Bitcoin’s recent bull cycle.
BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
Historical data suggests that testing this trendline could flush out weak hands, paving the way for strong buyer interest at discounted prices. The subsequent rebound could target the psychologically significant $100,000 level once again by 2025’s end.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
