Why Bitcoin is still poised to break $74K before end of year
2024.08.12 07:58
Bitcoin’s price dropped by over 25% during the Aug. 5 global market rout. However, emerging signals suggest that this decline could be a bear trap, and the price may return to its course toward a new record high in 2024.
Bitcoin downward momentum weakening
The Bitcoin (BTC) price shows signs of bullish divergence on the weekly charts.
More specifically, BTC’s price has formed lower lows since July. On the other hand, its weekly relative strength index (RSI) has formed higher lows. This divergence indicates that the downward momentum is weakening, and a potential reversal to the upside might be imminent.
BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: Roman
To avoid false signals, it’s important to confirm bullish divergences with other technical indicators. So it seems, Bitcoin formed what appears to be a long-legged Doji candlestick last week.
When this pattern appears after a strong trend (up or down), it can signal a potential reversal or at least a pause before the trend continues.
BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
The Doji candlestick formation, accompanied by a rise in trading volumes near the lower trendline of Bitcoin’s bull flag pattern, indicates strong trader conviction in a potential price rebound. This suggests that Bitcoin could rally toward the flag’s upper trendline, around $66,500, by September.
Since bull flags are typically bullish continuation patterns, a strong close above the flag’s upper trendline could trigger a rally. The price might then rise by an amount equal to the size of the previous uptrend before the flag formed.
In other words, the confluence of bull flag, Doji candlestick, and bullish divergence signals could help BTC price break above $79,000 — a new record high — in the coming months.
Bitcoin whales have been accumulating again
Bitcoin’s bullish reversal signals are receiving further support from onchain data tracking the richest investors, also known as “whales.”
Bitcoin whales holding at least 1,000 BTC have withdrawn the most Bitcoin from exchanges since 2015, marking the largest spike in nearly a decade, according to Glassnode. Over the past 30 days, around 73,350 BTC has left whale exchange balances.
Bitcoin whale volume to/from exchanges net position change. Source: Glassnode
The market interprets surges in Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges as a bullish indicator, considering that entities want to hold their BTC longer than sell them for other crypto or fiat.
The last time Bitcoin Whales withdrew this many coins from exchanges was in 2015 when BTC was trading at around $220. This preceded a massive bull run that eventually took the BTC price to $20,000 by December 2017.
Bond traders are 100% sure about September rate cut
Macroeconomic indicators are furthering Bitcoin’s bullish reversal outlook.
As of Aug. 12, CME data showed 100% confidence about the United States Federal Reserve cutting its benchmark interest rates in September. The probability of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut is 51.5%, compared to 15% a week ago. The rest anticipates a 50 bps rate cut, a bullish sign for Bitcoin.
Target rate probabilities for a September Fed meeting. Source: CME
All eyes on CPI data
This week is crucial in understanding the Fed’s interest rate outlook, with July’s US producer and consumer price reports to be released on Aug. 14 . Any indication of rising inflation could keep Fed Chair Jerome Powell from raising rates in September, thus posing downside risks for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Related: Bitcoin price drops below $59K as institutions stop buying stablecoins
The crypto market has opened its weekly session with an impasse between bulls and bears, indicating uncertainty toward the Aug. 14 inflation data. The deadlock is further exacerbated by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s hawkish remarks, noting that she won’t support a rate cut in the September meeting.
TOTAL crypto market capitalization daily performance chart. Source: TradingView
“The progress in lowering inflation during May and June is a welcome development, but inflation is still uncomfortably above the committee’s 2% goal,” she said on Aug. 10 in her address to the Kansas Bankers Association in Colorado Springs, adding:
“I will remain cautious in my approach to considering adjustments to the current stance of policy.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
