What’s next for Bitcoin price now that German gov’t BTC balance hits zero?
2024.07.13 19:53
On July 12, the X social network was aflame with multiple on-chain data outlets and independent analysts announcing that the German government’s Bitcoin wallets now have a zero balance. A portion of this group is suggesting that Bitcoin (BTC) price will go on an upward tear now that this assumed sell-pressure has been removed from the market.
Despite the news, Bitcoin price remains constrained within a tight range where $60,000 serves as resistance and $54,000 as support.
Let’s take a look at some of the technical factors behind Bitcoin’s recent price action.
Bear flag continuation and resistance at $60,000
Bitcoin’s breakdown from $60,000 confirmed the M-top (or double-top) and a pattern of bear flag continuation has set in. Note how the downtrend accelerates alongside increasing sell volume and attempted breakouts to the upside are capped by weak buy volume.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Ideally, traders would want to see this pattern broken by a strong high volume push above the $60,000 level where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level resides and then a few daily candle closes above $60,000 to establish support at or above this level.
Bitcoin order book depth and liquidation levels
In crypto, price tends to got in the direction where the most liquidity lies and comparing the BTC/USD volume profile against Bitcoin’s order book depth in the 2% to 5% range its clear that price has been ping ponging between the bids around $54,000 to $57,000 and the block of asks sitting at $60,000.
BTC/USDT order book depth 4-hour chart. Source: TRDR.io
Liquidation maps show leverage traders opened heavy longs around $56,500 so the situation could get tricky if price breaks below that level and the current pattern of bear flag continuation holds up.
Related: Why is Bitcoin price up today
Bitcoin exchange leverage liquidation map. Source: Coinglass
While market participants’ expectation that Bitcoin price can pull off a trend reversal now that the German government has finished its BTC selling is likely to be the new narrative in crypto media, the looming threat of some portion of the 140,000 Bitcoin being returned to Mt. Gox clients selling off their recent redemptions could be the next sell-pressure event that pins price within its current range or even sends it to the M-top target at $44,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
