Wells Fargo says ‘dominant pick’ Citi’s stock could double in three years

By Manya Saini and Niket Nishant

(Reuters) -Citigroup’s stock could double in value over the next three years as profits surge, expenses moderate, and the “most significant” reorganization in five decades improves management accountability, Wells Fargo (NYSE:) analysts wrote in a note on Friday.

The third-largest U.S. lender is the brokerage’s “dominant pick” among large-cap banks under almost any scenario, barring a recession. The analysts raised their price target to $110 from $95, while maintaining an “overweight” rating.

Citi’s shares rose as much as 1.6% to $71.09.

The vote of confidence marks a notable win for Citi CEO Jane Fraser, who has been looking to improve the bank’s profitability since taking the helm in 2021.

Wells Fargo’s Mike Mayo, known for his blunt critique of the banking industry’s missteps, praised Fraser’s sweeping overhaul in 2024 to cut costs and simplify the bank’s sprawling businesses.

“Investors seem to underappreciate… the improved management accountability after transition from 50 years of a global matrix structure to 5 lines of business,” the Citi bull said.

Analysts had described 2024 as a transitional year for the bank and said the reshuffle represents an inflection point that will increase efficiency.

Separately, KBW analysts led by David Konrad also raised their price target on Citi to $85 from $82, calling it one of their “top ideas” for 2025.

Increased capital markets activity and Citi’s discounted valuation compared to peers could present a compelling opportunity, it said.

Citi trades at a price-to-book ratio, a common benchmark for valuing stocks, of 0.69, according to data from LSEG. This compares with JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:)’s 2.08 and Bank of America’s 1.25.

A ratio below one typically indicates an undervalued stock.

The bank is expected to report results in mid-January, with all eyes on executive commentary on growing key businesses in 2025.

“The significance of Citi inflecting from multi-year value destruction to value creation is in our view one of the greatest drivers for sustainable stock price outperformance,” said Mayo.