Wall Street futures slip as markets reprice rate path ahead of busy week

(Reuters) – U.S. stock index futures slipped on Monday as investors dialed back bets on the scope of the Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, ahead of key inflation data, policymakers’ comments and the third-quarter earnings season that starts later this week.

Investors are pricing in an over 93% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in November, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. Just a week ago, markets were hopeful of a second, outsized 50 basis point reduction.

However, a bumper September non-farm payrolls report last Friday showed the economy unexpectedly added the most number of jobs in six months, pointing to a still-robust jobs market.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields rallied, with the yield on benchmark 10-year notes touching its highest since early August.

The rise in yields pressured rate-sensitive megacap growth stocks, pulling down Nvidia (NASDAQ:) 1.5%, Amazon.com (NASDAQ:) 2.1% and Apple (NASDAQ:) 1.5% in premarket trading.

Among other movers, shares of Pfizer (NYSE:) rose 2.7% after a report that activist investor Starboard Value has taken a roughly $1 billion stake in the drug giant.

At 5:31 a.m. ET, U.S. E-minis were down 32.75 points, or 0.56%, E-minis were down 148 points, or 0.73%, and Dow E-minis were down 197 points, or 0.46%.

While markets continue to fine tune its expectations for interest rate cuts, most market watchers remain optimistic about the underlying strength of the economy and outlook for equities.

Goldman Sachs raised its 2024 year-end S&P 500 target to 6,000 from 5,600, and also lowered its odds of a U.S. economic recession to 15% from 20%.

The benchmark S&P index closed Friday just above 5,751, while the Dow Jones Industrial Index notched a record closing high after the jobs report.

The consumer price index data, this week’s most closely watched data event, is due on Thursday.

Several Fed officials are also slated to speak this week, with comments expected from Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Raphael Bostic and Alberto Musalem later on Monday.

Third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies also begin this week, with major banks including JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:), Wells Fargo and BlackRock (NYSE:) scheduled on Oct. 11.

Earnings will be a significant test for Wall Street’s rally this year – the S&P 500 is up about 20% year-to-date and stands near record highs.

Other risks also remain on the table, including escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.