Volatility May Be Set To Trend Higher
2022.04.25 20:06
We are now seeing that major economies (U.S./UK/Japan) are not immune from global deleveraging and inflation. As investors seek safety in the U.S. dollar this may eventually trigger a broader and deeper selloff in U.S. stocks, and market volatility will begin to pick up as the ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (NYSE:VIXY) moves up. As the USD continues to strengthen, corporate profits for U.S. multinationals will begin to disappear.
Volatility May Have Bottomed, Setting Stage For A Trend Higher
Volatility is beginning to pick up as we see the VIXY moving up strongly from its six-month base.
Utilizing multiple-time-frame analysis and then focusing on the 4-hour chart, we were able to capture the volatility low earlier than we would have by only using the daily, weekly or monthly chart.
VIXY – Proshares Trust VIX Short-Term Futures ETF: 4-Hour
VIXY 4-Hour Chart.
The USD Is Up Versus All Other Major Currencies
The U.S. Dollar is continuing to appreciate as investors and central banks seek safety from geopolitical, inflation and other market dislocations. The low in the USD was made on Jan. 6, 2021.
1 Year Relative Performance USD – WWW.FINVIZ.COM
U.S. Dollar Performance.
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:UUP): Daily
UPP Daily Chart.
Stocks Meet Resistance And Are Slipping Again
Stocks hit resistance the first week of 2022 after hitting a Fibonacci iteration of 2.1618. Less than two months later, the SPDR® S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) found support at yet another Fibonacci number of 1.618. These Fibonacci levels are based on the range calculation of the pre-COVID high and the COVID March 2020 low.
However, after rallying from the 1.618 level, SPY rolled over to the downside as it hit a 72-bar (12-day) Bollinger Band using a standard deviation setting of 1.618.
Now we will watch closely to see if the price will make a new low for 2022, which may confirm a shift in the overall trend in stocks.
SPY – SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ASX:SPY): 4-Hour
SPY 4-Hour Chart.
Inverse ETFs Offer An Alternative To Traditional Buy and Hold
Astute traders who want to do more than liquidate part or all their stock holdings may want to consider investing in an inverted ETF. Inverted ETFs provide the ability to take advantage of a downturn in the stock market without the complexities of having to sell individual stocks short.
Since we reviewed the SPY uptrend and the potential for a change of trend to the downside; it’s only appropriate to view the opposite side of this trade by looking at the ProShares Short S&P500 (NYSE:SH) inverted ETF.
SH – Proshares Short S&P 500 ETF: 4-Hour Chart
SH 4-Hour Chart.
