USDJPY ticks marginally up, but momentum is weak
2023.01.11 13:00
is moving slightly higher within the medium-term downward sloping channel, but the momentum is weak to continue the bullish structure above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward wave from 114.64 to 151.93 at 133.10.
The MACD is rising somewhat above its trigger line in the bearish area; however, the RSI is flattening in the negative territory. Also, the 50- and the 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) are approaching each other suggesting a death cross in the next sessions.
Should the buying interest remain, and the pair surpasses the immediate 50.0% Fibonacci at 133.10, which overlaps with the 20-day SMA, then the bulls may manage to challenge the 134.50 barrier ahead of the 200-day SMA at 136.60, penetrating the descending channel to the upside. Above this line, the 38.2% Fibonacci at 137.55, which lies near the 50-day SMA may halt the positive actions as well.
On the other hand, a move lower could meet the seven-month trough of 129.50 before testing the crucial 61.8% Fibonacci of 128.70, which will be a significant step for a longer-term bearish structure. Beneath that, the 126.30 bottom, registered in May 2022 could come next.
All in all, USDJPY is bearish and only a move above the 200- and the 50-day SMAs may switch the outlook to bullish.
