USD/CHF Bulls in Charge as Potential Double Top Pattern Forms

5 hours ago

2 minutes read

2025.01.10 03:39

USD/CHF has been in a strong uptrend since September 2024, largely mirroring the US Dollar Index (DXY).
A potential double top pattern is forming around the 0.9137 resistance level.
Key support levels to watch are 0.9087, 0.9040, and the psychological 0.9000 handle.
A break above the 0.9137 resistance could lead to further gains.

has been on an incredible run since bottoming out in September 2024. The rally largely driven by the has continued with brief pullbacks and pauses as it hovers comfortably above the psychological 0.9000 handle.

In reality if one looks at the US Dollar Index and USD/CHF daily charts they are mirror images of another. A sign of the significance in the recent rally. As you can see below just how correlated the two have been with the USD Index represented by the red/purple line and USD/CHF in the blue line.

US Dollar Index (DXY) vs USD/CHF Daily Line Chart

Source: TradingView

The Swiss economy has faced its fair share of challengers but the weakening currency is not one of them. Switzerland, which is viewed as somewhat of an export economy, had been under pressure by those in the export industry as the strengthening Franc left exporters unable to compete.

Markets are pricing in a rate cut from the SNB in March and if expectations around rate cuts from the Federal Reserve continue to be hawkishly repriced, this could leave USD/CHF vulnerable to further upside.

US Jobs data due tomorrow could have a significant impact in this regard, as markets return from the US Holiday today. Economic Calendar for Jan 10

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, USD/CHF has been on a tear since the back end of September 2024.

More recently however, price has formed a base around the psychological 0.9000 level which is serving as strong support. The relationship with the DXY was shown above and underscores the importance of the index in USD/CHFs next move.

USD/CHF Daily Chart, January 9, 2025

Source: TradingView

Dropping down to a four-hour chart and it did appear that USD/CHF might be ready for a deeper retracement on January 6. USD/CHF broke structure by closing below the swing low of January 2, putting the bears in control.

However, instead of printing a lower high, USD/CHF went on to break the previous swing high and bring the bullish momentum back into play.

There is some light at the end of the tunnel for bears however. USD/CHF currently trades at 0.9128 with the most recent high just above at 0.9137.

A rejection of the previous high would lead to a double top pattern print, which is usually a sign that a reversal may be incoming.

A lot of this will depend on the US Dollars performance in the coming days but is worth watching.

A break of the resistance at 0.9137 brings resistance at 0.9157 and potentially 0.9224 into focus.

A rejection and double top print could open the door to a deeper retracement which may find support at 0.9087 before the 0.9040 and psychological 0.9000 come into focus.