US Job Growth Slumps, ADP Report Raises Concerns of Cooling Labor Market

Quiver Quantitative – In a recent shift in the U.S. job market, companies have started to ease up on hiring, with November witnessing a notable reduction, particularly in the manufacturing sector. According to the ADP Research Institute and Stanford Digital Economy Lab, private payroll saw an increase of just 103,000, falling short of the anticipated 130,000 increase forecasted by economists. This downturn marks the lowest level of manufacturing job growth since the early stages of 2022.

Service sectors, notably education and health services, along with trade and transportation, contributed primarily to the limited job growth. However, the leisure and hospitality sector, which had been a significant contributor to employment recovery post-pandemic, reported job cuts for the first time since February 2021. This suggests a return to more normalized hiring and wage growth trends in the upcoming year.

Market Overview

-The ADP National Employment Report revealed a significant slowdown in US job growth, with November’s increase falling short of expectations.
-Manufacturers and leisure and hospitality firms cut jobs, marking a shift in trend for these previously strong sectors.
-Wage growth moderated to the lowest pace in more than two years, indicating a cooling labor market.

Key Points

-Private payrolls added 103,000 jobs in November, significantly below the estimated 130,000.
-Services sectors led the job growth, while leisure and hospitality saw its first job losses since February 2021.
-Wage growth for both job stayers and changers slowed to the lowest rate since 2021, at 5.6% and 8.3% respectively.
-The report suggests a gradual cooling in the labor market, consistent with a potential soft landing for the US economy in 2024.

S&P 500 futures rose, and Treasury yields fell following the ADP report, indicating an optimistic market response. Friday’s official US jobs report remains the main focus for investors seeking confirmation of a slowdown in employment growth. The moderation in wage growth potentially signifies a diminishing inflationary risk and could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.

This article was originally published on Quiver Quantitative