US house prices to fall by up to 12%-Reuters
2022.12.02 12:19
US house prices to fall by up to 12%-Reuters
Budrigannews.com – Despite the fact that the expected decline of 12 percent from the peak to the minimum, predicted by analysts from Reuters, will be about a third more serious than the previous market correction 15 years ago and will continue this year.
Analysts believe that such modest dynamics after forty percent increases in average housing prices over the past two years will not be enough to ensure housing affordability. This is partly due to the increased consumption of additional premises during the coronavirus pandemic.
With the growth of housing prices over the last tenth decade, the historical storm abruptly stopped due to the growth of mortgage rates twice since the beginning of this year from 3.3 to 6.5. According to a survey of 25 experts in the field of housing strategies conducted in the period from December 8th to December 2nd, in the United States, the average The price of housing, as measured by the Case Hiller 20-City index, will increase by 13.6 this year, and in 2023 will decrease by 5.6.
This will be the first decline in housing prices throughout the year for a decade, if implemented. According to this indicator, the average price of housing in the United States reached its maximum level in June, and has since decreased by about a quarter.
The average forecast assumes a decrease in the overall dynamics by 12%, and forecasts of up to 30% are possible. According to Christal Sanberi, senior real estate expert at the RSM consulting company, “cheap housing prices have become inaccessible to many Americans,” except for high mortgage rates.
“Due to the fact that the housing and communal services market is reducing some of the sharp successes achieved during the pandemic, a further correction of the market is expected in 2023.”
According to the general consensus, Sunbury expects a decrease of 5 percent in the coming year. However, on the average question of an additional question, housing prices must decrease by almost 20% from the peak to the minimum in order for them to be affordable.
The forecast varies from 40 to approximately corresponding to the corrections that occurred before the financial crises of 2007-2008. Probably, the collapse will be prevented by a strong labor market, limited supply. 14 of respondents believe that this probability is low or extremely low.
Nine out of ten were tall, and one was very tall. It was believed that the number of transactions on existing homes, which for a very long period decreased to $ 4.4 million per year, from almost $ 6.5 million at the beginning of this year, will on average remain at the level until the 3rd quarter of this year.
In June 2020, the number of permits for the construction of houses in one family and houses in cottages in one family increased to the lowest level. Matthew Gardner, director of Windermer Real Estate, said that inventory restrictions will protect property prices to some extent in 2023.
“The national adjustment will be limited because many potential home sellers do not want to lose the historically low interest rate from which they are now benefiting.”
Most Americans have a fixed 30-year mortgage, so homeowners do not immediately feel the effects of an interest rate increase. This reduces the risk of foreclosure and total theft.
